NBA · resolved market

Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ff22cf1f7f86a8f6a1f46ebff9afc02d2f2f8be82ed1655a079fd2f8b8d450e

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 26, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $5,527,586
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $5,112,299

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,527,586 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,810 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x69c5…1e01backed Yes	43c	349,065$148,848 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148,847.94	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No	73c	181,370$132,055 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49,315.43	88	40.9%36 W · 52 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes	7c	170,750$11,350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,350.48	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	8cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9df5…61e1backed Yes	18c	170,589$31,504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31,503.74	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.24per pick	41cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1751…febdbacked Yes	0c	161,500$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No	73c	148,561$108,203 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40,357.78	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Yes	36c	128,604$46,150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46,149.91	145	33.1%48 W · 97 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-23%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x533c…2658backed Yes	42c	124,889$52,791 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52,790.67	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes	17c	114,977$19,546 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19,546.04	464	26.1%121 W · 343 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No	63c	103,748$65,726 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38,021.94	1,341	29.9%401 W · 940 L	-53.8wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed No	67c	83,082$56,045 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27,037.65	53	49.1%26 W · 27 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed No	67c	78,547$52,310 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26,237.24	894	44.4%397 W · 497 L	+8.6wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8239…d9a3backed Yes	13c	71,022$9,256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,255.76	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb29f…45b5backed Yes	47c	70,890$33,089 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33,088.89	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x061e…5ab8backed Yes	8c	65,919$5,336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,335.52	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30c1…9f91backed No	60c	64,859$38,873 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25,985.2	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+2.0wins	+0.39per pick	41cpaid	+71.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked No	54c	59,884$32,439 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27,444.93	1,271	38.3%487 W · 784 L	-13.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Yes	49c	53,712$26,382 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26,381.71	73	42.5%31 W · 42 L	-3.6wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb06…d915backed Yes	50c	53,635$26,825 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26,825.31	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x27fd…77a8backed Yes	49c	50,182$24,486 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24,486.31	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No	64c	46,490$29,869 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16,620.29	250	45.6%114 W · 136 L	+7.8wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No	75c	45,076$33,993 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,082.31	24	62.5%15 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	64cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Yes	45c	44,588$20,097 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20,097.31	70	38.6%27 W · 43 L	-5.2wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x929c…fe32backed Yes	39c	42,040$16,518 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16,518.2	25	40%10 W · 15 L	+2.2wins	+0.09per pick	31cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9c1…4ebbbacked Yes	44c	41,638$18,487 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18,487.21	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	+90.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked No	49c	41,111$20,268 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20,842.48	145	38.6%56 W · 89 L	-12.9wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x39d2…0b90backed No	80c	39,151$31,254 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,897.18	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3239…8da3backed Yes	51c	37,460$19,246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19,245.71	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Yes	44c	37,155$16,193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16,192.98	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	32cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…6f22backed No	55c	36,685$20,241 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16,444.35	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	27c	36,604$9,995 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,995.32	844	43%363 W · 481 L	-40.5wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed No	65c	36,220$23,444 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,775.55	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8791…4c9abacked Yes	18c	35,695$6,512 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,511.88	180	31.7%57 W · 123 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x54ce…9f80backed Yes	15c	35,614$5,293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,293.28	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-24%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed No	72c	33,734$24,394 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,340.38	342	55.6%190 W · 152 L	+28.2wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+36%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x05dd…305cbacked Yes	18c	33,414$6,136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,135.89	31	32.3%10 W · 21 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked No	55c	33,331$18,249 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15,081.94	65	47.7%31 W · 34 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e39…4543backed Yes	41c	32,850$13,571 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,570.78	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked No	64c	32,589$20,873 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,716.76	956	41.7%399 W · 557 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ee4…697bbacked Yes	50c	31,611$15,837 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15,837.29	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed No	51c	30,641$15,700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14,940.41	57	28.1%16 W · 41 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7444…ee2ebacked Yes	50c	29,820$14,899 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14,899.01	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No	54c	27,540$14,818 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,721.61	232	37.1%86 W · 146 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30df…28a9backed Yes	56c	26,413$14,878 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14,878.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.56per pick	56cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No	53c	26,128$13,853 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,274.05	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+1.6wins	+0.13per pick	28cpaid	+62.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x997b…801ebacked No	55c	25,873$14,311 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,561.99	461	31%143 W · 318 L	+15.6wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No	74c	25,810$19,023 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,786.33	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6978…08d8backed Yes	44c	24,516$10,753 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,753.16	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No	65c	23,488$15,306 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,181.63	258	45%116 W · 142 L	-10.0wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe498…7e84backed Yes	22c	22,392$4,858 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,857.79	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x088e…bc56backed No	50c	22,371$11,098 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,273.35	52	53.8%28 W · 24 L	+3.9wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+23.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc23e…98a4backed Yes	49c	22,367$10,888 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,888	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-3.2wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	0c	21,863$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.03	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No	58c	21,856$12,767 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,089.3	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6501…1220backed Yes	47c	21,132$10,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,000	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc6f…6c5cbacked Yes	50c	20,083$10,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,000	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xede0…32bcbacked Yes	28c	20,007$5,682 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,681.67	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e74…5972backed Yes	17c	18,614$3,159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,158.68	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No	53c	18,530$9,879 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,650.43	185	36.8%68 W · 117 L	-11.1wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No	71c	17,481$12,374 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,106.59	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	1c	17,024$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.55	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	1cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe613…540ebacked No	54c	16,663$8,978 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,685.25	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.46per pick	54cpaid	+85.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed No	56c	15,679$8,842 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,837.41	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+2.0wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+31.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf43d…8abcbacked Yes	50c	14,949$7,504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,504.26	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	50cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09d2…26aebacked Yes	20c	14,897$2,961 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,960.67	61	60.7%37 W · 24 L	+7.8wins	+0.13per pick	48cpaid	+31.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5652…00c9backed Yes	33c	14,805$4,882 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,882.41	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+101.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf263…e9c1backed Yes	13c	14,655$1,860 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,860	111	45%50 W · 61 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b8c…1556backed No	51c	14,504$7,360 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,144.26	56	46.4%26 W · 30 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	40cpaid	+33.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b5a…5fa3backed No	47c	14,141$6,652 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,489.24	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.13per pick	12cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8d4…ee54backed Yes	54c	13,647$7,366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,365.69	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f2…b422backed Yes	48c	13,382$6,439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,438.7	115	58.3%67 W · 48 L	+6.4wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd77c…ad9bbacked Yes	48c	13,371$6,467 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,466.85	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Yes	23c	13,361$3,010 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,009.66	191	47.6%91 W · 100 L	+6.9wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4074…ea32backed No	50c	13,165$6,638 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,527.05	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.45per pick	55cpaid	+83.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Yes	34c	12,820$4,354 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,353.69	176	46%81 W · 95 L	-6.0wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc26…15f9backed Yes	51c	12,800$6,465 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,465.22	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	+138.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe176…7f65backed No	59c	12,765$7,538 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,227.02	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.24per pick	51cpaid	+58.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc5b…8ef3backed No	56c	12,489$7,050 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,438.36	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.44per pick	56cpaid	+77.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41ea…7a3dbacked No	53c	12,430$6,610 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,819.93	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.2wins	+0.21per pick	29cpaid	+68.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No	67c	12,282$8,174 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,107.94	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No	70c	11,949$8,394 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,554.61	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bc0…0f2abacked No	61c	11,906$7,250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,656.48	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.39per pick	61cpaid	+64.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Yes	19c	11,459$2,126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,125.63	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2639…a9b6backed Yes	15c	11,338$1,669 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,669.44	241	47.7%115 W · 126 L	+6.8wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x056b…303ebacked No	54c	11,303$6,052 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,250.23	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+1.7wins	+0.10per pick	49cpaid	+56%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x11ed…8a89backed Yes	39c	11,212$4,359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,358.87	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb89f…9475backed Yes	47c	11,198$5,220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,219.86	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed No	51c	11,183$5,660 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,522.43	433	48.5%210 W · 223 L	+11.0wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e83…3bb7backed Yes	43c	11,050$4,802 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,801.58	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes	9c	10,900$951 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$951.19	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No	79c	10,880$8,553 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,326.97	222	43.7%97 W · 125 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8be4…c32ebacked Yes	17c	10,714$1,808 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,808.34	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	+111.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4867…a6f8backed No	58c	10,637$6,126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,510.93	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.35per pick	65cpaid	+54.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x413f…47f3backed Yes	51c	10,505$5,387 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,386.97	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x633e…d305backed Yes	3c	10,426$344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$344.42	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	+95.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10df…04a9backed Yes	22c	10,324$2,276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,276.36	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	+250.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x761c…cf61backed Yes	47c	10,314$4,830 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,829.65	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00c8…9ccdbacked Yes	12c	10,021$1,208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,208.3	44	45.5%20 W · 24 L	+2.9wins	+0.07per pick	39cpaid	+26.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No	52c	10,000$5,226 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,774.45	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x662a…77b7backed Yes	46c	10,000$4,597 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,597.14	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event