NBA · resolved market

Will LeBron James play for the Brooklyn Nets in 2026-27?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb70b726d1ac3557eab99c20c70a6305b15829201839f9dd9ad4fc2a2c19b4688

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 26, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $478,011
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $55,496

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $478,011 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes	0c	128,330$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.33	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	8cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12b4…a1bebacked Yes	0c	88,100$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.1	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x69f2…49b3backed Yes	0c	20,560$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.56	49	22.4%11 W · 38 L	-5.1wins	-0.10per pick	33cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7164…7ff7backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.10per pick	7cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4382…7011backed Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	13	0%0 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f96…87f3backed Yes	0c	13,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-62.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe22f…1076backed Yes	0c	12,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	6	0%0 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a2…c423backed Yes	0c	11,440$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.44	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	+468.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.5wins	+0.19per pick	44cpaid	+107.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8791…4c9abacked Yes	0c	10,468$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.42	180	31.7%57 W · 123 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	37	2.7%1 W · 36 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	7cpaid	-73%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e5c…6ad7backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+4.0wins	+0.21per pick	37cpaid	+49%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8f59…6a33backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes	18c	107.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.44	251	38.6%97 W · 154 L	-11.4wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will LeBron James play for the Brooklyn Nets in 2026-27?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event