TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,125,141
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,765,727

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,125,141 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,762 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdf17…97d1backed Yes38c359,713$137,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137,767.075349.1%26 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No64c154,316$99,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,078.762857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9df5…61e1backed Yes54c148,595$80,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80,073.1616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-72.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Yes40c137,511$55,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,140.2214533.1%48 W · 97 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bc1…8db4backed No56c113,987$64,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,668.973013.3%4 W · 26 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick8cpaid-71.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf020…3212backed Yes39c100,477$38,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,717.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x30c1…9f91backed No41c100,000$40,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,173.34580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.39per pick41cpaid+71.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0431…c2c2backed Yes59c84,252$49,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,490.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No64c82,682$52,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,141.111,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes38c79,073$30,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,170.0746426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9c1…4ebbbacked Yes40c72,216$28,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,643.49425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid+90.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8791…4c9abacked Yes26c72,130$18,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,780.6318031.7%57 W · 123 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked No73c64,444$47,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,344.3114538.6%56 W · 89 L-12.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes38c62,500$23,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,911.0842640.4%172 W · 254 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No69c60,176$41,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,648.12837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes36c57,910$20,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,596.084131.7%13 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No64c46,798$30,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,680.112462.5%15 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes38c44,291$16,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,742.9284443%363 W · 481 L-40.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Yes39c42,335$16,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,684.0616848.2%81 W · 87 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bfe…2d74backed No70c41,475$28,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,525.311546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No68c41,220$27,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,338.3725045.6%114 W · 136 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f2f…2ca8backed No66c30,000$19,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,240.029745.4%44 W · 53 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3906…7556backed Yes50c25,064$12,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,535.16714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-73.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x69c5…1e01backed Yes42c23,902$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,000616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid+4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Yes36c23,654$8,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,591.6289444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfffc…1577backed Yes29c23,514$6,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,832.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No63c23,058$14,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,632.341957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Yes34c22,531$7,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,576.747038.6%27 W · 43 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed No49c20,644$10,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,570.0834255.6%190 W · 152 L+28.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+36%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6f96…87f3backed Yes31c20,081$6,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,225.253912.8%5 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-62.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd104…acefbacked Yes37c20,000$7,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,38010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x531b…32b6backed Yes41c20,000$8,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,119.932347.8%11 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+28.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes45c18,864$8,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,484.830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked No43c18,437$7,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,472.3795641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6af7…5a6fbacked Yes50c18,195$9,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,033.781546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…6f22backed Yes39c18,000$7,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,0901457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Yes36c17,980$6,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,417.952339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed No72c16,902$12,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,662.0115140.4%61 W · 90 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked No52c16,419$8,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,821.211618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-60.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5652…00c9backed Yes65c16,000$10,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,376.07540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+101.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Yes48c15,986$7,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,640.4819147.6%91 W · 100 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No59c15,964$9,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,536.461947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes42c15,710$6,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,620.219649%47 W · 49 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8be4…c32ebacked Yes41c15,103$6,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,257.23425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+111.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3839…e2eebacked Yes42c15,028$6,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,310.425455.6%30 W · 24 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No69c13,942$9,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,278.86955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6131…b44fbacked Yes49c13,941$6,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,846.3230%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No72c13,839$10,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,836.3218536.8%68 W · 117 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x453a…81d2backed Yes43c13,020$5,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,658.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff09…9328backed Yes26c13,000$3,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,44210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No69c12,758$8,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,966.953447.1%16 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2da…f8d4backed Yes25c12,110$3,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,023.68633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+167.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked No70c12,009$8,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,618.796547.7%31 W · 34 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes30c12,000$3,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,628.86633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5074…fcddbacked No51c11,047$5,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,440.522100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No67c10,956$7,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,648.112360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed No59c10,854$6,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,483.671,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76dd…45bbbacked Yes26c10,813$2,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,865.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes0c10,580$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.161457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Yes28c10,529$2,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,901.839842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf807…c5dcbacked Yes38c10,422$3,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,991.081747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Yes41c10,066$4,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,095.3913747.4%65 W · 72 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93a9…0b88backed Yes36c10,020$3,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,574.52450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+63.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9f3…d6ddbacked Yes59c10,000$5,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,868.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No57c9,978$5,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,291.4920536.6%75 W · 130 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes45c9,766$4,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,380.932231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2942…59abbacked Yes31c9,637$2,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,973.2718044.4%80 W · 100 L+15.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+36.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes41c9,566$3,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,948.731957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+31.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes26c9,467$2,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,489.692725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c21…c583backed Yes28c8,692$2,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,456.3630%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No67c8,425$5,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,795.023056.7%17 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbb0…bd65backed No57c8,251$4,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,588.031573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick64cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No58c8,250$4,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,425.153525.7%9 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid+115.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82a0…14b3backed No63c8,212$5,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,027.5316444.5%73 W · 91 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Yes3c8,207$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.441227.4%113 W · 299 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+94.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes44c8,023$3,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,568.83520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-69.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No57c7,970$4,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,420.44450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x929c…fe32backed No58c7,923$4,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,321.252540%10 W · 15 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No71c7,913$5,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,266.59956.6%56 W · 43 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+18%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4867…a6f8backed No66c7,842$5,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,691.353100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde24…e804backed Yes44c7,811$3,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,435.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc26…15f9backed Yes25c7,789$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,980.35425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+138.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4526…7a45backed No57c7,657$4,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,265.34862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3290…551fbacked No65c7,433$4,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,568.12560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78bf…6ebbbacked Yes34c7,409$2,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,537.611770.6%12 W · 5 L+4.4wins+0.26per pick45cpaid+82.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x5529…86d2backed Yes47c7,322$3,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,476.393655.6%20 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4f…4652backed No63c7,215$4,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,689.421866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+27.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes41c7,200$2,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,921.2815219.1%29 W · 123 L-10.1wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-68.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe498…7e84backed Yes30c7,193$2,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,129.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No62c7,121$4,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,688.381181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick63cpaid+37%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4074…ea32backed No59c7,010$4,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,843.162100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb2…0bd2backed No56c7,000$3,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,086.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2941…2eb7backed Yes27c6,981$1,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,919.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes31c6,968$2,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,151.1258%2 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick8cpaid-47.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c11…9b33backed Yes46c6,779$3,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,130.242227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-36.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes46c6,753$3,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,103.238248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c7a…fb68backed Yes42c6,669$2,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,827.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79bf…bcdfbacked Yes38c6,235$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,400.21633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-49.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1abb…0901backed Yes28c6,164$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,700580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+62.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5d8…e9a1backed Yes41c6,100$2,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,492.441540%6 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.