NBA · resolved market

Will LeBron James play for the Orlando Magic in 2026-27?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05cb22d4e2f1299ab9186cd033aa7194892a454da486b9c3c13ac9d0f88341ff

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 26, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $719,417
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $55,063

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $719,417 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4f42…8bbcbacked Yes	0c	244,796$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes	0c	163,963$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.96	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	8cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6955…867abacked Yes	0c	54,752$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.75	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.13per pick	29cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1ed…25bebacked Yes	0c	38,785$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.99	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	685	42.6%292 W · 393 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes	0c	13,996$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	39	17.9%7 W · 32 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7bd…2a37backed Yes	0c	12,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	40	37.5%15 W · 25 L	+7.6wins	+0.19per pick	19cpaid	+241.1%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xfba1…1733backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	12	0%0 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x98af…3a0dbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee0c…3e4dbacked Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	256	42.2%108 W · 148 L	+5.9wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	385	45.7%176 W · 209 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f59…6a33backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8791…4c9abacked Yes	0c	5,230$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.26	180	31.7%57 W · 123 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will LeBron James play for the Orlando Magic in 2026-27?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event