NBA · resolved market

Will LeBron James play for the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2026-27?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e57ebccc9c536cdf522b044d20b2dcfa251dc4fd0e2d9be41b0b3ee3aa5401f

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 26, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $979,356
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $135,245

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $979,356 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x542a…a81bbacked Yes	0c	142,616$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.62	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes	0c	127,177$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.18	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	8cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f42…8bbcbacked Yes	1c	48,525$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	0c	42,097$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.1	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	0c	35,979$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.1	84	4.8%4 W · 80 L	+3.0wins	+0.04per pick	1cpaid	+489.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7942…b60bbacked Yes	0c	34,887$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-79.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xab68…1bb1backed Yes	0c	29,500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	159	11.9%19 W · 140 L	-6.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	0c	22,536$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.76	1,132	17%192 W · 940 L	+2.5wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes	0c	21,690$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.69	37	2.7%1 W · 36 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	7cpaid	-73%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Yes	0c	20,477$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.64	412	27.4%113 W · 299 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	+94.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02b4…826cbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	0c	17,868$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.02	844	43%363 W · 481 L	-40.5wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x99c4…0c89backed Yes	0c	17,722$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	111	42.3%47 W · 64 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7bd…2a37backed Yes	0c	12,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	40	37.5%15 W · 25 L	+7.6wins	+0.19per pick	19cpaid	+241.1%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6f96…87f3backed Yes	0c	11,500$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-62.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f2…49b3backed Yes	0c	11,044$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.38	49	22.4%11 W · 38 L	-5.1wins	-0.10per pick	33cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8791…4c9abacked Yes	0c	10,500$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	180	31.7%57 W · 123 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ff…a806backed Yes	0c	10,220$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.22	160	30.6%49 W · 111 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x077e…1fb0backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	162	61.1%99 W · 63 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	59cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfba1…1733backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	12	0%0 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x98af…3a0dbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f83…643fbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e4a…311cbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	114	43.9%50 W · 64 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4503…45fbbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.36per pick	14cpaid	+81.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes	0c	7,077$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.23	41	31.7%13 W · 28 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-34%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes	0c	6,600$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	464	26.1%121 W · 343 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e03…c97bbacked Yes	1c	5,922$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x419f…e853backed Yes	0c	5,453$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf327…d35cbacked Yes	0c	4,459$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will LeBron James play for the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2026-27?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event