TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,734,846
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$928,975

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,734,846 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 243 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x011f…1122backed Yes2c168,996$3,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,119.1446426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Yes3c138,165$3,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,915.3514533.1%48 W · 97 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb272…5030backed Yes3c98,888$2,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,553.91128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes2c55,000$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.1895641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6268…6031backed Yes2c52,618$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.651421.4%3 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+31.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e4a…311cbacked Yes2c48,490$1,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,114.0411443.9%50 W · 64 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes3c40,112$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100.38372.7%1 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-73%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes2c35,829$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.313013.3%4 W · 26 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick8cpaid-71.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77a3…7deebacked Yes1c35,340$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.26728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick8cpaid+425%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes1c32,627$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.83224.5%1 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick1cpaid-30.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c31,994$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.41,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes2c31,310$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.07590%0 W · 59 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x531b…32b6backed Yes3c30,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9002347.8%11 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+28.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9905…b54fbacked Yes1c26,636$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f42…8bbcbacked Yes3c26,081$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750287.1%2 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick7cpaid-42.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c25,130$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.71844.8%4 W · 80 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick1cpaid+489.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Yes2c22,248$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.7319152.4%100 W · 91 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+23%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1713…1986backed Yes5c19,881$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+66.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf92…61e3backed Yes2c18,413$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Yes2c17,624$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.4339842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Yes2c17,321$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.51618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-60.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Yes3c15,003$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.0317646%81 W · 95 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b91…ae77backed Yes4c14,162$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.611030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+49%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes2c12,803$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.991010%1 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick1cpaid+168.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes2c11,038$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.279946.5%46 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes1c10,488$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.666547.7%31 W · 34 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Yes1c10,092$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.7141227.4%113 W · 299 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+94.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc798…8aabbacked Yes2c10,000$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes3c9,714$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.1184443%363 W · 481 L-40.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6058…efe6backed Yes2c8,421$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.6630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfda7…269bbacked Yes4c8,216$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0354…be83backed Yes3c8,132$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.621136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-44.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes0c7,832$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47c1…024dbacked Yes2c7,397$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.72520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5652…00c9backed Yes3c7,360$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.16540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+101.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed Yes2c6,900$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.114035%14 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x544f…3ca1backed Yes4c6,826$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.2922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-53.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed Yes1c6,824$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.715728.1%16 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes4c6,683$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.65560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick30cpaid+27.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf105…f151backed Yes3c6,669$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes2c6,321$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.19520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-69.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1eb…7afebacked Yes4c6,242$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.866547.7%31 W · 34 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69c5…1e01backed Yes3c6,152$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid+4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f03…fa6dbacked Yes3c6,065$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked Yes3c6,037$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.0160%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bfe…2d74backed Yes3c5,803$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.491546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ba…e89abacked Yes2c5,792$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick45cpaid+34.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x225b…422abacked Yes2c5,706$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.7390%0 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x36f8…dd6abacked Yes2c5,154$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1252015%3 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+174.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80a4…d087backed Yes2c5,059$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.6430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes3c5,049$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.06714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick4cpaid+106.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f83…643fbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bd5…57acbacked Yes2c5,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80316.5%2 W · 29 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-48.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56be…57eebacked Yes3c5,000$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.7821143.1%91 W · 120 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadbd…93dcbacked Yes2c5,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc65b…b345backed Yes3c4,798$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Yes4c4,793$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.1113747.4%65 W · 72 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40c5…5cbabacked Yes0c4,730$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.96616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick7cpaid-55%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbcc…1377backed Yes3c4,583$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.741118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc49…3d89backed Yes2c4,566$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4150%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…dca3backed Yes2c4,512$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11015052.7%79 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes3c4,495$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.717031.4%22 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes2c4,251$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.93437%3 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4382…7011backed Yes1c4,064$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.99130%0 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes2c3,945$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.542725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e0f…708ebacked Yes1c3,936$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff36…e757backed Yes2c3,889$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6111547%54 W · 61 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd05f…7c84backed Yes3c3,875$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7942…b60bbacked Yes3c3,689$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.51911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-79.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf27…b613backed Yes2c3,581$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8296…e9cbbacked Yes2c3,576$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.434845.8%22 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+30.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98af…3a0dbacked Yes2c3,556$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x088e…bc56backed Yes1c3,417$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.065253.8%28 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x91b3…77d6backed Yes3c3,359$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.52616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick4cpaid+181.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb7c…7c86backed Yes1c3,354$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-77.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x835b…118fbacked Yes3c3,051$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.42812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid+24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes3c3,020$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6556945.3%258 W · 311 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2942…59abbacked Yes3c3,003$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.9218044.4%80 W · 100 L+15.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+36.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes2c3,000$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6340133.4%134 W · 267 L+27.0wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x37a1…6691backed Yes0c2,956$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.45333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-35.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8791…4c9abacked Yes2c2,890$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7218031.7%57 W · 123 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4254…e52fbacked Yes7c2,816$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.361963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69f2…49b3backed Yes3c2,794$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.224922.4%11 W · 38 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-24.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2c19…e131backed Yes4c2,778$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick23cpaid-84.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7be4…8477backed Yes2c2,744$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.14358.6%3 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick9cpaid+6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b5a…5fa3backed Yes2c2,740$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.22425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid-46.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f33…914ebacked Yes1c2,709$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.523053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x645e…d120backed Yes4c2,661$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015341.8%64 W · 89 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa16b…6514backed Yes4c2,586$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8644…ad01backed Yes3c2,500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab68…1bb1backed Yes1c2,500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.515911.9%19 W · 140 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x13d6…5cc7backed Yes3c2,440$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752015%3 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-53.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes3c2,348$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7315010%15 W · 135 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-33.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b9e…6838backed Yes4c2,277$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+88.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdec2…b015backed Yes2c2,259$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0910335.9%37 W · 66 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e42…4938backed Yes3c2,251$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02b4…826cbacked Yes5c2,104$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001010%1 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d79…ae69backed Yes7c2,081$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.191643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x231a…a82fbacked Yes7c2,064$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.791931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30f8…b824backed Yes1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.