TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,462,366
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$632,128

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,462,366 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x011f…1122backed Yes1c128,890$1,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,686.4746426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked Yes1c107,635$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.7160%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e4a…311cbacked Yes0c100,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40011443.9%50 W · 64 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb272…5030backed Yes1c71,381$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.61128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes1c68,937$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.018840.9%36 W · 52 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes1c50,700$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.253013.3%4 W · 26 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick8cpaid-71.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c43,765$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.51590%0 W · 59 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c41,204$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.15844.8%4 W · 80 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick1cpaid+489.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes1c31,072$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.56372.7%1 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-73%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfc7…2a87backed Yes1c27,933$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.61875%6 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.37per pick38cpaid+87.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x72f7…92f7backed Yes0c27,000$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes1c25,945$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.879946.5%46 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Yes1c24,398$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.1239842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes0c23,642$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.71224.5%1 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick1cpaid-30.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f42…8bbcbacked Yes1c23,559$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250287.1%2 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick7cpaid-42.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes2c22,241$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.7422750.2%114 W · 113 L+24.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+6.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6268…6031backed Yes1c22,070$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.391421.4%3 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+31.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf1f…ede0backed Yes2c20,531$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.440%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes1c17,616$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.451625%4 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid+15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes1c16,948$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.191010%1 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick1cpaid+168.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadec…3c7bbacked Yes1c16,035$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.340%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes1c15,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes1c13,285$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.31560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick30cpaid+27.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes2c13,218$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.7195641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes0c12,939$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.761010%1 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick4cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f83…643fbacked Yes0c12,000$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee9…f7acbacked Yes0c10,400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.810150.5%51 W · 50 L+10.1wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+21.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd99f…e9bebacked Yes7c10,030$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Yes1c10,010$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6514533.1%48 W · 97 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes1c10,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab68…1bb1backed Yes1c9,500$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.515911.9%19 W · 140 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes1c9,397$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.036349.2%31 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff36…e757backed Yes1c9,014$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.6611547%54 W · 61 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa06…1e0fbacked Yes1c8,699$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-33.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes0c8,621$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5166…f454backed Yes0c8,043$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9840%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7c…7c86backed Yes1c7,618$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.38616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-77.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x929c…fe32backed Yes3c7,537$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2452540%10 W · 15 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c7,378$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.211,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…e0eebacked Yes2c6,865$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.884129.3%12 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked Yes1c6,575$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+104.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69f2…49b3backed Yes1c6,424$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.224922.4%11 W · 38 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-24.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6672…e975backed Yes1c6,200$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.5520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-49.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Yes1c6,154$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.341227.4%113 W · 299 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+94.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4f7…73bbbacked Yes1c6,000$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bd5…57acbacked Yes1c6,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36316.5%2 W · 29 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-48.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4da1…1f8cbacked Yes2c5,814$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.63425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-68.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes1c5,638$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.613438.2%13 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+46.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73a7…8ef1backed Yes1c5,555$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8df7…36c4backed Yes1c5,340$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.48560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes1c5,021$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4284443%363 W · 481 L-40.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507031.4%22 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x56be…57eebacked Yes3c5,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.7721143.1%91 W · 120 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.579649%47 W · 49 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7942…b60bbacked Yes2c4,912$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-79.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5146…ac5ebacked Yes1c4,725$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4180%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x13d6…5cc7backed Yes2c4,616$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702015%3 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-53.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes1c4,598$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.85437%3 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f96…87f3backed Yes1c4,492$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303912.8%5 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-62.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b5a…5fa3backed Yes1c4,444$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.44425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid-46.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3de…111abacked Yes1c4,363$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00c8…9ccdbacked Yes1c4,325$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.694445.5%20 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x528d…8a30backed Yes1c4,288$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.25100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x30f8…b824backed Yes0c4,175$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.331822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes2c4,000$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.146046.7%28 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98af…3a0dbacked Yes1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d1e…8b40backed Yes2c3,807$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.23366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick31cpaid+56.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4382…7011backed Yes1c3,775$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.58130%0 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8a5ebacked Yes2c3,209$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2630%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes2c3,134$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5840133.4%134 W · 267 L+27.0wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x517b…fe53backed Yes1c3,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick1cpaid+229.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7be4…8477backed Yes1c2,989$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.41358.6%3 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick9cpaid+6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Yes1c2,899$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1611136%40 W · 71 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36f8…dd6abacked Yes1c2,792$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402015%3 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+174.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcba1…b4e2backed Yes0c2,678$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x146e…ab0bbacked Yes1c2,651$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.961921.1%4 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick14cpaid+265.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb460…041fbacked Yes2c2,632$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508132.1%26 W · 55 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb14…26e8backed Yes1c2,448$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.74825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-61.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x47c1…024dbacked Yes1c2,343$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.92520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x025d…5b22backed Yes1c2,187$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067b…3bb4backed Yes3c1,946$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x061e…5ab8backed Yes2c1,918$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40100%0 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33b6…1bccbacked Yes1c1,857$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.91137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe44b…6e0abacked Yes1c1,821$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6723445.7%107 W · 127 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes1c1,800$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10969.4%9 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes1c1,621$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2125642.2%108 W · 148 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6058…efe6backed Yes1c1,615$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes2c1,584$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.09714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick4cpaid+106.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes1c1,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.24250%21 W · 21 L+4.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6d79…ae69backed Yes2c1,453$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.71643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2da…f8d4backed Yes2c1,389$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+167.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91b3…77d6backed Yes2c1,387$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.25616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick4cpaid+181.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4009…84cdbacked Yes4c1,300$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7300…e2e1backed Yes4c1,297$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x835b…118fbacked Yes2c1,262$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.38812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid+24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ac3…c523backed Yes2c1,243$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206540%26 W · 39 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes3c1,200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.254146.3%19 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25a7…8b7cbacked Yes1c1,195$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7132…84e2backed Yes2c1,133$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes2c1,115$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.534131.7%13 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.