NBA · resolved market
Will LeBron James play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68ac7e19cc9983bf2981deafced6e439317713d8a04fe8c40fdefb91516a20b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,873,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $846,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,873,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4505…b0c8backed Yes | 1c | 226,357$1,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,329.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 1c | 113,645$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.28 | 145 | 33.1%48 W · 97 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x181f…ed9dbacked Yes | 0c | 92,399$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.63 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 77,117$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.57 | 84 | 4.8%4 W · 80 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 1cpaid | +489.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes | 0c | 75,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee9…f7acbacked Yes | 0c | 65,776$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.37 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +10.1wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…fe32backed Yes | 1c | 59,168$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.82 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 0c | 59,130$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.95 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa002…e840backed Yes | 0c | 56,463$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.23 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 55,720$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.53 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355f…1847backed Yes | 0c | 54,546$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 0c | 51,836$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Yes | 1c | 51,817$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Yes | 0c | 47,819$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.51 | 398 | 42.5%169 W · 229 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes | 0c | 40,138$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.01 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f83…643fbacked Yes | 0c | 39,999$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…6ad7backed Yes | 0c | 20,027$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.45 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +49%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ff…805cbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 428 | 27.3%117 W · 311 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34d…b5c3backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddd…47f1backed Yes | 0c | 19,388$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…1bb1backed Yes | 0c | 17,000$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 159 | 11.9%19 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a1bebacked Yes | 0c | 16,507$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…7ff7backed Yes | 1c | 12,816$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…9663backed Yes | 0c | 12,276$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8af9…c3e8backed Yes | 1c | 12,088$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.29 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +195.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…268cbacked Yes | 0c | 11,979$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 10,874$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 10,717$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…422abacked Yes | 1c | 9,487$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.89 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f8…b824backed Yes | 0c | 9,046$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 0c | 8,711$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 1cpaid | +168.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4604…56f1backed Yes | 0c | 8,549$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed Yes | 0c | 8,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 0c | 6,605$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…e478backed Yes | 2c | 5,914$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4382…7011backed Yes | 0c | 5,824$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x528d…8a30backed Yes | 0c | 5,788$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f2…49b3backed Yes | 1c | 5,102$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02b4…826cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc13f…c336backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x572c…c28fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…57eebacked Yes | 0c | 4,846$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…64b0backed Yes | 0c | 4,619$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23bf…805cbacked Yes | 0c | 4,493$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 575 | 37.4%215 W · 360 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f96…87f3backed Yes | 0c | 4,422$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 1c | 4,402$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 412 | 27.4%113 W · 299 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8077…73abbacked Yes | 0c | 4,402$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c44…f66fbacked Yes | 0c | 4,400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d6…5cc7backed Yes | 1c | 4,393$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacd1…fc34backed Yes | 1c | 4,200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…56dcbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 144 | 38.9%56 W · 88 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 0c | 3,995$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…1377backed Yes | 1c | 3,949$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…f50fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,882$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a5…7f1abacked Yes | 1c | 3,759$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 27cpaid | +147.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…b450backed Yes | 2c | 3,484$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Yes | 1c | 3,449$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 111 | 36%40 W · 71 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…9722backed Yes | 0c | 3,334$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +347.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…2ee8backed Yes | 0c | 3,318$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 1c | 3,291$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 256 | 42.2%108 W · 148 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x419f…e853backed Yes | 1c | 3,279$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 1c | 2,713$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…3b04backed Yes | 1c | 2,677$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,625$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…3a0dbacked Yes | 0c | 2,511$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077e…1fb0backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 162 | 61.1%99 W · 63 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1739…cfbbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…b9f5backed Yes | 1c | 2,085$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f59…6a33backed Yes | 0c | 2,055$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f6…e268backed Yes | 1c | 1,691$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…0320backed Yes | 1c | 1,686$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4b…24afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,670$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…0d1ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca1…78b1backed Yes | 1c | 831.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f8…dd6abacked Yes | 2c | 714.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +174.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…0791backed Yes | 2c | 712.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +183.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will LeBron James play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27?this page
- Will LeBron James play for the Atlanta Hawks in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Brooklyn Nets in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Charlotte Hornets in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Chicago Bulls in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Dallas Mavericks in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Detroit Pistons in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Houston Rockets in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Indiana Pacers in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Memphis Grizzlies in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the New Orleans Pelicans in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Orlando Magic in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?Yes won
- Will LeBron James play for the Phoenix Suns in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Portland Trail Blazers in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Utah Jazz in 2026-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.