NBA · resolved market
Will LeBron James play for the Dallas Mavericks in 2026-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7a86f84ac30f17fbc76a88c2880e196ca1ff35835aba2ca271a042d5b34e066
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,548,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $580,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,548,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e4a…311cbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 114 | 43.9%50 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Yes | 0c | 94,258$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.87 | 398 | 42.5%169 W · 229 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes | 0c | 82,569$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.57 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 77,081$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.08 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes | 0c | 66,639$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.92 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Yes | 1c | 63,145$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 50,087$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.87 | 84 | 4.8%4 W · 80 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 1cpaid | +489.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa002…e840backed Yes | 0c | 32,445$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…dbd6backed Yes | 0c | 27,682$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 0c | 27,485$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x181f…ed9dbacked Yes | 0c | 24,994$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3879…d8c3backed Yes | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8672…d866backed Yes | 0c | 20,561$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a1bebacked Yes | 0c | 20,485$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…268cbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…1bb1backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 159 | 11.9%19 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f83…643fbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7942…b60bbacked Yes | 1c | 17,270$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f96…87f3backed Yes | 0c | 16,873$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 15,357$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…c6cebacked Yes | 0c | 12,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f8…b824backed Yes | 0c | 11,116$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4382…7011backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 0c | 10,853$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 145 | 33.1%48 W · 97 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee9…f7acbacked Yes | 0c | 10,600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +10.1wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…9ee3backed Yes | 0c | 10,526$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 852 | 48.9%417 W · 435 L | +26.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 0c | 10,259$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 256 | 42.2%108 W · 148 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 385 | 45.7%176 W · 209 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5c…7aaabacked Yes | 0c | 9,779$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 0c | 9,660$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8077…73abbacked Yes | 0c | 9,635$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 0c | 9,057$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 412 | 27.4%113 W · 299 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 8,933$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4763…1810backed Yes | 0c | 8,599$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed8…b681backed Yes | 0c | 8,320$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…3a0dbacked Yes | 0c | 7,971$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 0c | 7,751$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 1cpaid | +168.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacaf…1f47backed Yes | 0c | 7,630$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…b70cbacked Yes | 0c | 7,334$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce2…a7a9backed Yes | 0c | 6,861$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…422abacked Yes | 0c | 6,341$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…2dafbacked Yes | 0c | 5,053$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +301.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x357c…7dfebacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x419f…e853backed Yes | 0c | 4,102$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…f1d0backed Yes | 1c | 3,968$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…2a37backed Yes | 0c | 3,735$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +7.6wins | +0.19per pick | 19cpaid | +241.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf105…f151backed Yes | 3c | 3,223$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1739…cfbbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,715$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e14…f3cebacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…5ab8backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…1377backed Yes | 0c | 2,217$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 1c | 2,159$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f8…dd6abacked Yes | 1c | 1,696$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +174.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddd…39eebacked Yes | 1c | 1,456$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 225 | 42.2%95 W · 130 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will LeBron James play for the Dallas Mavericks in 2026-27?this page
- Will LeBron James play for the Atlanta Hawks in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Brooklyn Nets in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Charlotte Hornets in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Chicago Bulls in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Detroit Pistons in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Houston Rockets in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Indiana Pacers in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Memphis Grizzlies in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the New Orleans Pelicans in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Orlando Magic in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?Yes won
- Will LeBron James play for the Phoenix Suns in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Portland Trail Blazers in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Utah Jazz in 2026-27?No won
- Will LeBron James play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.