TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7e0f…708e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
69
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Dota2, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Dota2 at 54 out of 100; worst Middle East at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT3638.9%14 W · 22 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.3
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+39.3%+$12.7
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+34.2%+$25.5
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.39
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$104.05
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+112.7%+$90.87
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+216.8%+$205.55
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+32.8%+$12.35
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+63.5%+$34.95
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$358Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+35.3%+$126.38
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+31.2%+$61.85
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+30.8%+$60.9
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$565Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+38.5%+$217.27
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$650Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+70.8%+$459.9
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$696Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+84.3%+$586.29
US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$36.45
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$394Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$394.43
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$199.09
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$334Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$333.87
US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$90.45
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$341Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$340.86
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$134.62
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$412Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$412.12
US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$87.81
US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$67.64
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-88.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
P2P FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.13
Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$172.25
Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.72
Over $18M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$251Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$250.58
Over $30M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.9
Over $80M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.48
Over $60M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.11
Over $35M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.08
Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.2
Over $100M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.29
Over $140M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.33
Over $120M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.18
Over $160M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.23
Over $200M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.07
Over $180M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.3
Over $9M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+83.4%+$21.37
All 16 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5)backed Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winnerbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+32.3%+$12.14
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+655.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winnerbacked Tundra Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+655.9%+$180.47
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+328.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Grand Prix Hassan II: Karim Bennani vs Quentin Halysbacked Karim Bennani · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+328.3%+$34.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-08-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$11.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.49
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.87
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.38
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Marinersbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Heretics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$49.97
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.