Token Launches · resolved market
Over $60M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12fabfc7c5e205912ecd4d822f0820a93b1107cfe238109e523bdb69ee5b4d77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,959
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,959 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 2c | 13,208$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.57 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Yes | 5c | 4,536$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.44 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…0998backed Yes | 9c | 3,517$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.23 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0f…708ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,566$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.11 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94fc…e11fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,400$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 6c | 1,394$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.33 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa31…c9c4backed Yes | 15c | 1,366$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,342$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…5cc2backed Yes | 9c | 1,300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.5 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…9362backed Yes | 6c | 1,202$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.74 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +93%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd762…1e56backed Yes | 5c | 1,109$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Yes | 9c | 1,107$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed Yes | 2c | 1,099$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0d…e5c6backed Yes | 10c | 1,015$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddeb…1db6backed Yes | 9c | 897.11$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…99e7backed Yes | 14c | 719.52$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.31 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 6c | 692.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…0a7bbacked No | 75c | 600$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd509…d6b7backed Yes | 25c | 589.45$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 4c | 588.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 76 | 6.6%5 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…8f86backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 7c | 500$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21b2…b602backed Yes | 14c | 500$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x892a…c935backed Yes | 12c | 458.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed Yes | 14c | 452.34$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed Yes | 3c | 445.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc05f…9b56backed Yes | 23c | 366$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.56 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda29…28e9backed Yes | 24c | 349.07$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.59 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.22per pick | 26cpaid | -92.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 9c | 299.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 73c | 289.89$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.57 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45f4…631dbacked Yes | 4c | 275.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…01e0backed Yes | 19c | 264.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 7c | 250$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1207…2858backed Yes | 16c | 249$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4f…3e65backed Yes | 20c | 243.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed Yes | 14c | 209.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 8c | 204.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a4…aa66backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…6a0cbacked Yes | 15c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe965…d4a7backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 12c | 160$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd160…0af6backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…0540backed Yes | 16c | 131.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd584…a0f0backed Yes | 27c | 130.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e91…6cdfbacked Yes | 8c | 129.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 14c | 125.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed0…a062backed Yes | 18c | 111.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff8…7073backed Yes | 11c | 100.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…0efebacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 14c | 99.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 114 | 30.7%35 W · 79 L | -15.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed No | 60c | 19.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +7.0wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $60M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?this page
- Over $100M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $120M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $140M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $160M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $180M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $18M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $1M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?Yes won
- Over $200M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $20M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $25M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $2M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?Yes won
- Over $30M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $35M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $3M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?Yes won
- Over $40M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $4M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?Yes won
- Over $50M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $6M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?Yes won
- Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?Yes won
- Over $80M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $9M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.