TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Over $50M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$65,869
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$61,695

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,869 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdbf6…5cc2backed Yes3c3,800$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1033616.7%6 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+78.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dd8…431ebacked Yes18c3,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.9890%0 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes1c2,741$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.746123%14 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa800…bd7abacked Yes19c2,613$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.264831.3%15 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-47.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x197c…9b94backed Yes27c2,299$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.1513023.8%31 W · 99 L-0.6wins0.00per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e0e…5001backed No72c2,110$1,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.2513100%13 W · 0 L+4.0wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+48.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x4157…85e1backed Yes16c2,100$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes8c1,816$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.97519.8%5 W · 46 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-78.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes14c1,551$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.788032.5%26 W · 54 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-36.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa31…c9c4backed Yes15c1,421$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.041735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbec…dcbdbacked Yes4c1,310$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.952416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-69.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c1,011$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.133283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94fc…e11fbacked Yes4c999.93$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352611.5%3 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick6cpaid+34.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3fe…4a24backed Yes2c999.09$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9912528%35 W · 90 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes1c960.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc934…99e7backed Yes22c915.24$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.924219%8 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-4.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd762…1e56backed Yes6c790.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.91220%0 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes7c772.97$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6325422%56 W · 198 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes2c677$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.92766.6%5 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes7c630.96$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452377.2%17 W · 220 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4e6…4bd4backed No74c551.26$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.768854.5%48 W · 40 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc200…2be9backed Yes25c500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12590%0 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes9c495.38$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.711910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-55.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9507…7b04backed Yes5c475.57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.231717.6%3 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-76.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc05f…9b56backed Yes21c467.17$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.519254.3%50 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes10c444.62$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.027126.8%19 W · 52 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Yes17c429.86$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.2314437.5%54 W · 90 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d1b…f055backed Yes15c408.13$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.382917.2%5 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-69.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xebb4…f390backed No80c400$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-40.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes15c378.56$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0711145.9%51 W · 60 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes5c364$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.831541.9%3 W · 151 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f52…6f28backed Yes10c363.61$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6560%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd37…e117backed Yes11c350.88$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.43244.2%1 W · 23 L-4.1wins-0.17per pick21cpaid-88.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x21b2…b602backed Yes17c350$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.55942.4%25 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed0…a062backed Yes18c332$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.352035%7 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-43.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x186d…01e0backed Yes27c331.38$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.198939.3%35 W · 54 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0503…db3dbacked Yes13c318.89$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.54219%8 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes4c302.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.122333.4%8 W · 225 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-64.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa96…9592backed Yes5c291.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.575437%20 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes19c275$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.43495.7%20 W · 329 L-25.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes15c264.67$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.433329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed Yes15c257.59$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.393441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-27.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf35…9362backed Yes7c222.91$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.262516%4 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid+93%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65b1…e1b5backed Yes9c219.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc601…4120backed No78c202.12$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.48475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5378…38e4backed No73c200$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+183%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed No74c200$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5219543.1%84 W · 111 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfab…97afbacked Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102528%7 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-51.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e6c…fb04backed Yes10c199.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.95837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-48.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dd2…33b8backed Yes28c199.39$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.832433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08f8…c2f4backed Yes18c198.15$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.522638.5%10 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb120…f2ffbacked No73c173.45$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.83666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x981d…ed7fbacked No76c128.71$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.188744.8%39 W · 48 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9de1…160ebacked No77c128.59$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.23271.9%23 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+21.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf6a7…0af9backed No77c127.48$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.03955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick37cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc55e…ee39backed Yes12c127.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.85180%0 W · 18 L-5.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x9510…0fb3backed No76c126.89$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65d4…b7e3backed No78c126.32$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.792475%18 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd4c3…aa08backed No78c120.56$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-36.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x312c…0f42backed Yes23c120$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.650%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes9c119.02$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5617948%86 W · 93 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda29…28e9backed Yes29c110.45$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.01254%1 W · 24 L-5.6wins-0.22per pick26cpaid-92.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x892a…c935backed Yes14c102.21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3170%0 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xedda…2e39backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159240.2%37 W · 55 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff69…0efebacked Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183935.9%14 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe965…d4a7backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124030%12 W · 28 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-48.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77e4…d18fbacked Yes17c98.88$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.655736.8%21 W · 36 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+26.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65dd…4664backed No78c90.97$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.631872.2%13 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick66cpaid-1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe4f…3e65backed Yes29c84.62$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.471020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbff8…7073backed Yes16c72.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5650%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10ad…827cbacked Yes15c70$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.57041.4%29 W · 41 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+26%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed No62c55.08$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9315941.5%66 W · 93 L+9.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x00a1…04b8backed Yes20c50.29$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.061225%3 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick38cpaid+2.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6136…fdecbacked Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick40cpaid-78.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0a31…6bc2backed No75c31.46$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb5f…ba7dbacked No76c28.44$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.83475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+24.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7627…3788backed No76c26.01$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.342100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+174.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No78c24.28$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.391643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-33.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb920…1b19backed No76c20.48$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.922937.9%11 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.