TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,011,369
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,219,464

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,011,369 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6adc…bebabacked No1c238,872$3,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,482.062133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb67…d696backed No6c54,307$3,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,075.137270.8%51 W · 21 L+20.9wins+0.29per pick42cpaid+190%equal weight74+0.22 edge/pick
0xbca6…73e3backed No0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508327.7%23 W · 60 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed No0c22,020$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.021216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-50.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe270…10b5backed No6c16,582$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,026.666634.8%23 W · 43 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12c7…14babacked No6c16,495$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dd2…33b8backed No4c14,842$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.922433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa31…c9c4backed No6c13,465$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.041735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa06c…9d93backed No6c11,975$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5542…4c26backed No0c11,173$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.17850%4 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+156.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No0c10,803$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402321.7%5 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-64.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf6bf…81a6backed No10c9,950$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c8,376$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.97663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe714…d510backed No8c7,280$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.561833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaae2…dbdabacked No4c7,127$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.763228.1%9 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-48.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dd9…8cc1backed No7c5,510$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-66.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x23f4…c234backed No7c4,838$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.494938.8%19 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b0b…c3dfbacked No6c4,685$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.662729.6%8 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0b1…31a8backed No5c4,220$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.54per pick13cpaid+306.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd533…d6a1backed No1c3,649$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+101.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc694…1171backed No4c3,600$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.37123.9%17 W · 54 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed No4c3,198$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.911631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-54.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1e96…262ebacked No1c3,055$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.62520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-53.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f5c…a5debacked No9c2,810$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.322334.8%8 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87f0…361dbacked No6c2,749$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.681968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+27.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No2c2,729$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.752061.9%4 W · 202 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid+62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe4f…3e65backed No7c2,668$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.961020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd166…666ebacked No2c2,656$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2960%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc311…c154backed No8c2,555$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.24875%6 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+118.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa1f1…c5f8backed No7c2,473$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.42250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked No5c2,320$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.347919%15 W · 64 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No7c2,210$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.353283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No6c2,169$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.012917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-40.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee16…16a2backed No1c2,077$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.39771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.32per pick39cpaid+93.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc1e2…6585backed No3c2,054$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+70.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed No10c2,009$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014437.5%54 W · 90 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x59b8…26b2backed No5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003324.2%8 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed No7c1,948$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.3513422.4%30 W · 104 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+175.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbd81…006dbacked No5c1,896$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.37520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-74.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a40…4093backed No5c1,826$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005453.7%29 W · 25 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6789…ac37backed No8c1,770$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501770.6%12 W · 5 L+5.7wins+0.33per pick37cpaid+698%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No8c1,552$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.993495.7%20 W · 329 L-25.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0bd8…a74abacked No5c1,500$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.867514.7%11 W · 64 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1287…85adbacked No4c1,500$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+26%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c77…6e76backed No6c1,431$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.61963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+12.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc02d…92c1backed No7c1,429$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1207…2858backed No2c1,397$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0540%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb082…2c98backed No7c1,367$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.26475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+82%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfc7…7f02backed No10c1,250$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.59922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-65.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f8d…c245backed No7c1,196$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick20cpaid+42.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ea5…3fdabacked No8c1,117$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.142944.8%13 W · 16 L+4.6wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+61.7%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x5b23…4528backed No7c1,109$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.254660.9%28 W · 18 L+5.9wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+53.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xddeb…1db6backed No7c1,096$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked No7c1,068$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x40d3…46b8backed No6c1,063$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7740%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked No5c1,060$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5314141.8%59 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xea45…2c14backed No10c1,036$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-50%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed No2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20850%4 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+98%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x15ce…b912backed No5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503050%15 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+48.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8da…22e9backed No6c997.09$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.221376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.23per pick54cpaid+47.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x005b…2947backed No8c970$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.75742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90bc…60efbacked No4c930$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4c3…0172backed No1c876.6$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd455…a1b2backed No6c769.35$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9935…ab1cbacked No6c756.15$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+128.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No5c742.63$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.691631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6a7…0af9backed No7c713.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick37cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc05…f600backed No10c690.2$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.658421.4%18 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid+37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d78…ffa6backed No7c666$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.964528.9%13 W · 32 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+34.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7445…19dabacked No4c656.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6eca…8699backed No12c650.98$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x83c6…5639backed No8c649.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.34per pick49cpaid+64.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked No4c599.68$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.68766.6%5 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x828d…c9a5backed No6c586.54$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.432842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d49…82bebacked No9c581.73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf94e…b2c7backed No8c575.84$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.71450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51cd…1a4dbacked No6c570.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.68520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadb7…90b5backed No4c561.65$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.68425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No8c558.55$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.878032.5%26 W · 54 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-36.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x61bc…7cbfbacked No3c535.6$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+61%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa94…5fc3backed No3c529.16$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84c0…52a2backed No7c526.09$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35365.6%2 W · 34 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44f8…f560backed No4c508.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.362142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No7c505.07$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.572377.2%17 W · 220 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1e5…c5dfbacked No4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61b3…a758backed No4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaea…90dcbacked No7c500$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57af…cd44backed No20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed No7c499.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3615941.5%66 W · 93 L+9.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2039…f96dbacked No7c499.81$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.99850%4 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+80.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a58…4ababacked No10c499.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.931154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed No6c468.47$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.77333%1 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-65.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9fc…b5f0backed No8c457.29$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc1…8360backed No11c455.26$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483627.8%10 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked No8c430.75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.17553.6%2 W · 53 L-7.0wins-0.13per pick16cpaid-83.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf0e8…904cbacked No7c428.74$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.058744.8%39 W · 48 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5de…448bbacked No6c405.05$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+159.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed No3c399.84$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.596116.4%10 W · 51 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+95.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb824…0a03backed No3c394.84$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.39per pick41cpaid+75.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x134f…2c00backed No5c392.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-22.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.