Token Launches · resolved market
Over $3M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25038890214e5b099a38e984c6f325c8df4615d3504a5ec7ef53619c924b77e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $109,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 8c | 18,125$1,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,411.99 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe650…1450backed No | 13c | 10,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked No | 10c | 7,505$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.54 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…7842backed No | 10c | 6,797$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.77 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 2c | 5,893$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.04 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5d…94d5backed Yes | 77c | 4,961$3,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 1c | 4,194$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x776b…7251backed No | 13c | 3,774$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.03 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf9…c81bbacked No | 14c | 3,445$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f9…c5e8backed No | 12c | 1,591$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.97 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +17.9wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 8c | 1,399$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.52 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 1,264$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc7…7f02backed No | 11c | 1,253$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.61 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…160ebacked No | 15c | 1,165$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.48 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x31e1…c852backed No | 22c | 1,111$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.42 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x003b…1ebebacked No | 13c | 1,079$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.16 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 13c | 1,021$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.71 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95b4…2fddbacked No | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…9890backed No | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x59b8…26b2backed No | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7818…d185backed No | 14c | 998.86$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.84 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23f4…c234backed No | 20c | 740.79$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.16 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…83d8backed No | 16c | 720.49$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.32 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed No | 10c | 678.51$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.89 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked No | 13c | 576.37$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.98 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 524.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…38bcbacked No | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…a84abacked No | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 7c | 480$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 76 | 6.6%5 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55b…e0debacked No | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc05f…9b56backed Yes | 80c | 382.04$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.62 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed0…a062backed Yes | 78c | 378.51$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.83 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…124abacked No | 9c | 348.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +10.9wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfb…9762backed No | 17c | 300.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57fa…4767backed No | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d78…ffa6backed No | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3252…81cfbacked No | 25c | 299.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64f7…63c3backed No | 12c | 248.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4e…0bdabacked Yes | 79c | 243.84$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14dc…f468backed No | 12c | 209.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 21c | 198.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…530cbacked No | 13c | 155.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4705…c610backed No | 26c | 153$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa29d…6d1ebacked No | 16c | 152.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.27per pick | 31cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x38ea…296dbacked No | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf29e…841dbacked No | 12c | 149$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…3aa3backed No | 37c | 131.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedda…2e39backed No | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…c57fbacked No | 10c | 105$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…b16dbacked No | 20c | 100.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…dbe6backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62ca…ee4bbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +135%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…fa95backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d5…201abacked No | 14c | 92.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdea5…c77bbacked No | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf440…7ab4backed No | 20c | 51.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1af5…89babacked No | 22c | 49.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9708backed Yes | 62c | 44.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d1…3a7abacked Yes | 75c | 42.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -62%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb717…d819backed Yes | 80c | 37.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…d5cfbacked Yes | 62c | 25.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3889…12aebacked Yes | 80c | 24.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $3M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?this page
- Over $100M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $120M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $140M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $160M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $180M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $18M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $1M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?Yes won
- Over $200M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $20M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $25M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $2M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?Yes won
- Over $30M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $35M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $40M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $4M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?Yes won
- Over $50M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $60M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $6M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?Yes won
- Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?Yes won
- Over $80M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $9M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.