Token Launches · resolved market
Over $80M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9877d3a686cff177dbfc3a7af9e01bbc5261ef66a4e68c1f77770623dfd9e38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Yes | 5c | 9,282$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.71 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd8…431ebacked Yes | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 4c | 4,301$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.02 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f4…a8d4backed Yes | 4c | 4,142$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes | 9c | 2,793$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.77 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc55e…ee39backed Yes | 7c | 2,618$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.18 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -5.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0694…4a4ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,497$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.24 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 6c | 2,340$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.55 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0f…708ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,167$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.48 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x892a…c935backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…99e7backed Yes | 14c | 1,813$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.06 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,542$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.73 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Yes | 6c | 1,322$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd762…1e56backed Yes | 4c | 1,132$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x08f8…c2f4backed Yes | 6c | 1,099$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.95 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa96…9592backed Yes | 4c | 1,080$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe16c…9081backed Yes | 3c | 999.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…5cc2backed Yes | 6c | 999.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4f…3e65backed Yes | 17c | 961.06$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.09 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 937.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed Yes | 3c | 859.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 5c | 811.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 643$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff2…90e4backed Yes | 8c | 589.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94fc…e11fbacked Yes | 3c | 550$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed Yes | 4c | 500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda29…28e9backed Yes | 18c | 484.2$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.99 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.22per pick | 26cpaid | -92.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 3c | 437.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 76 | 6.6%5 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…9362backed Yes | 5c | 366.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +93%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed Yes | 6c | 335.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1b…f055backed Yes | 7c | 327.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed Yes | 8c | 312.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd160…0af6backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 10c | 236.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 57 | 3.5%2 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…78e5backed Yes | 5c | 221.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 16c | 175$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 22c | 168.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa31…c9c4backed Yes | 10c | 159.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedda…2e39backed Yes | 7c | 149.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…1186backed No | 77c | 148.05$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf808…6e99backed Yes | 18c | 98.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7114…b9bbbacked Yes | 19c | 89.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff8…7073backed Yes | 20c | 85.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 14c | 79.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 57c | 30.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…b608backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $80M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?this page
- Over $100M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $120M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $140M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $160M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $180M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $18M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $1M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?Yes won
- Over $200M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $20M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $25M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $2M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?Yes won
- Over $30M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $35M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $3M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?Yes won
- Over $40M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $4M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?Yes won
- Over $50M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $60M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $6M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?Yes won
- Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?Yes won
- Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
- Over $9M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.