TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Over $30M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$95,906
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$85,110

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,906 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1e0e…5001backed No66c22,443$14,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,683.413100%13 W · 0 L+4.0wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+48.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x4157…85e1backed Yes34c9,000$3,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,020728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes23c3,090$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.448032.5%26 W · 54 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-36.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa800…bd7abacked Yes31c2,925$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.784831.3%15 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-47.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfde…f598backed Yes42c2,723$1,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,147.7870%0 W · 7 L-3.1wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xda29…28e9backed Yes39c2,684$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.39254%1 W · 24 L-5.6wins-0.22per pick26cpaid-92.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes22c2,216$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.18519.8%5 W · 46 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-78.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x18e4…e2bbbacked No69c2,125$1,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.835347.2%25 W · 28 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfad6…9af6backed Yes46c2,099$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.02812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.2wins-0.41per pick53cpaid-83.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed No59c2,000$1,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.3215941.5%66 W · 93 L+9.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c76…e720backed Yes28c1,988$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.41315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-78.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeaa5…7ac4backed Yes11c1,800$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3fe…4a24backed Yes3c1,593$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.512528%35 W · 90 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb44a…7af0backed Yes7c1,512$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe270…10b5backed Yes18c1,504$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.136634.8%23 W · 43 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbec…dcbdbacked Yes11c1,400$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.792416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-69.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0cce…af8cbacked Yes42c1,394$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.5140%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc55e…ee39backed Yes21c1,301$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.64180%0 W · 18 L-5.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x1681…b1c7backed No76c1,288$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.773060%18 W · 12 L+4.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+53.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2d1b…f055backed Yes25c1,248$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.732917.2%5 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-69.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa31…c9c4backed Yes29c1,239$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.621735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes21c1,228$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.1525422%56 W · 198 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c36…1b0abacked Yes8c1,186$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.350%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dc7…ad5bbacked Yes27c1,078$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.11020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes3c999.98$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.41541.9%3 W · 151 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fc1…8360backed No65c902.58$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.213627.8%10 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc934…99e7backed Yes23c891.62$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.624219%8 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-4.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c847.7$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.293283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb920…1b19backed Yes23c823.93$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.352937.9%11 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9833…3f04backed No72c783.74$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.451450%7 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+137.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes28c740$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.210462.5%65 W · 39 L+13.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+22.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x9d6c…e400backed Yes17c737.82$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.431421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-57.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd762…1e56backed Yes7c736.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9220%0 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes17c720.22$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.462377.2%17 W · 220 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93f4…c2cbbacked Yes10c700.08$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.623141.9%13 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes4c700$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31766.6%5 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe965…d4a7backed Yes16c700$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1134030%12 W · 28 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-48.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf74b…95cbbacked Yes3c699.78$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.886314.3%9 W · 54 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf90e…2b7cbacked Yes47c691.25$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.74911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.27per pick38cpaid-82.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb717…d819backed Yes15c623.41$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.132714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-64.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22f0…0975backed Yes47c623.05$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.551060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f4d…7670backed Yes47c619.32$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.71656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes8c618.54$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.333315.2%5 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e0f…708ebacked Yes4c611.94$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-88.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x65d4…b7e3backed No65c600.47$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.852475%18 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf17…6cc6backed No63c596.53$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.193666.7%24 W · 12 L+8.4wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+45.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes46c556.81$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.46666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x197c…9b94backed Yes7c515.74$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1313023.8%31 W · 99 L-0.6wins0.00per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6e1…6579backed Yes4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20110%0 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3d1d…256abacked Yes3c494.93$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.775614.3%8 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-52.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf297…2c03backed Yes41c470.97$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.55633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45f4…631dbacked Yes5c461.28$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.53823.7%9 W · 29 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3032…99e7backed No69c424.84$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.72975.9%22 W · 7 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+26.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x77e4…d18fbacked Yes25c419.02$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.235736.8%21 W · 36 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+26.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd37…e117backed Yes14c400.14$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.01244.2%1 W · 23 L-4.1wins-0.17per pick21cpaid-88.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x94fc…e11fbacked Yes3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122611.5%3 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick6cpaid+34.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc507…5d1ebacked No62c382.23$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.893855.3%21 W · 17 L+5.2wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+31.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdbbe…354ebacked Yes3c371.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.82100%0 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes8c359.02$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.726123%14 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Yes13c351.29$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9314437.5%54 W · 90 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x892a…c935backed Yes24c325.04$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.0170%0 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce83…5b97backed No77c313.42$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.273773%27 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2482…67b1backed Yes5c311.95$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.33911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-80.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ea9…6d52backed Yes4c299.84$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.96911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-63%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes22c298.22$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8311145.9%51 W · 60 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No74c250.21$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.2419336.3%70 W · 123 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0503…db3dbacked Yes19c250$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.54219%8 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes40c249.07$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.588739.1%34 W · 53 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+20.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x981d…ed7fbacked No67c247.79$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.48744.8%39 W · 48 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes46c215.15$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.974027.5%11 W · 29 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-12%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6539…f6cdbacked Yes6c214.74$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.889920.2%20 W · 79 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes24c212.33$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7633329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfab…97afbacked Yes13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262528%7 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-51.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e91…6cdfbacked Yes36c194.69$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.09714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick45cpaid-76.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d0c…c026backed Yes43c189.24$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes13c187.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.832123.8%5 W · 16 L-4.9wins-0.23per pick47cpaid-66.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc05f…9b56backed Yes27c181.96$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.919254.3%50 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes18c181.13$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.463495.7%20 W · 329 L-25.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed Yes29c172.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-27.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x186d…01e0backed Yes36c162.98$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.418939.3%35 W · 54 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x08d5…5765backed Yes34c145$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x828d…c9a5backed Yes38c144.5$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.912842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd297…2919backed Yes36c126.68$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.359550.5%48 W · 47 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes21c125.28$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.046420.3%13 W · 51 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x90aa…1f2cbacked No80c123.74$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.04633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44df…ae2cbacked No80c123.5$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.79771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x312c…0f42backed Yes28c120$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.650%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb3cf…4723backed Yes12c115.26$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.518154.3%44 W · 37 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+18.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes24c114.1$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2717948%86 W · 93 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf35…9362backed Yes10c110.53$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.422516%4 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid+93%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed0…a062backed Yes37c105.17$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.912035%7 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-43.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0e2…ebc6backed Yes17c104.85$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.183026.7%8 W · 22 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-51.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x999f…da43backed No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402766.7%18 W · 9 L+7.0wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+93.4%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xd160…0af6backed Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164924.5%12 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236931.9%22 W · 47 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-42.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f9c…6eeabacked Yes38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381540%6 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x679d…6f07backed Yes29c99.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08f8…c2f4backed Yes36c99.22$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.722638.5%10 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b5e…332ebacked Yes28c95.21$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.21520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid+17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f87…83c1backed No79c90.56$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.991338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-34.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.