TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Over $4M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$140,451
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$133,407

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,451 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6138…97a0backed No13c27,347$3,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,505.3915941.5%66 W · 93 L+9.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e37…cccbbacked No11c19,660$2,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,165.7110143.6%44 W · 57 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe650…1450backed No15c10,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50080%0 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd72…b6c6backed Yes74c7,826$5,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,069.233933.3%13 W · 26 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-38.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Yes80c6,000$4,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,230875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9de1…160ebacked No19c5,201$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.163271.9%23 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+21.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdc76…7842backed No17c5,005$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.485135.3%18 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x23f4…c234backed No28c4,997$1,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.094938.8%19 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4e6…4bd4backed No19c4,748$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.338854.5%48 W · 40 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3402…9446backed No25c4,368$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,091.884751.1%24 W · 23 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+29.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x776b…7251backed No16c3,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4904341.9%18 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+25.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x93b7…7d51backed No20c2,967$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.3120551.2%105 W · 100 L+13.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xccb9…8cb6backed No21c2,261$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No2c2,039$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.992377.2%17 W · 220 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a33…c087backed No26c2,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5203756.8%21 W · 16 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+25.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbbd1…6feebacked No10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005448.1%26 W · 28 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick35cpaid+14%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6e5d…94d5backed Yes67c1,747$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.08580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+22.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x597e…cd70backed Yes78c1,500$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3302055%11 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc05f…9b56backed Yes75c1,435$1,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.379254.3%50 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbebf…4e07backed No17c1,405$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.87061.4%43 W · 27 L+6.3wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x197c…9b94backed Yes75c1,369$1,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.5813023.8%31 W · 99 L-0.6wins0.00per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9f9…c5e8backed No17c1,259$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.226063.3%38 W · 22 L+17.9wins+0.30per pick34cpaid+108.3%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0xd7ee…9597backed No15c1,199$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.8116247.5%77 W · 85 L+13.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+35.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No14c1,101$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.98519.8%5 W · 46 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-78.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x11e9…4136backed No15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1508630.2%26 W · 60 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59b8…26b2backed No32c999.99$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3203324.2%8 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7205…ffd4backed No10c800$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807431.1%23 W · 51 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x822e…5febbacked No21c709.99$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.16344.4%28 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No2c600$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122333.4%8 W · 225 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-64.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf880…135dbacked No7c600$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7818…d185backed No18c597.34$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.442748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc101…e6d1backed No14c592.89$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.6518144.8%81 W · 100 L+23.4wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+55.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No9c580.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9125422%56 W · 198 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfc7…7f02backed No16c572.22$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.54922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-65.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c90…5bacbacked No19c494.08$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.875320.8%11 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c0d…e5c6backed Yes76c488.04$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.16944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+87.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0de…9635backed No20c469.64$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.44560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+54.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21b6…83d8backed No13c449.43$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.188017.5%14 W · 66 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No3c434.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x186d…01e0backed Yes78c417.42$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.568939.3%35 W · 54 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x95b4…2fddbacked No25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed0…a062backed Yes75c392.87$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.022035%7 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-43.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x64f7…63c3backed No16c371.61$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.461741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-20.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e8a…91f0backed No23c350$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.51450%7 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3252…81cfbacked No34c300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1023732.4%12 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74bc…124abacked No14c297.83$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.710338.8%40 W · 63 L+10.9wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+26.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x1315…a84abacked No34c296.66$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.862231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked No9c251.27$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.95766.6%5 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x772b…b16dbacked No16c250.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.716927.5%19 W · 50 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes70c247.1$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.874553.3%24 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedda…2e39backed No26c240$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.29240.2%37 W · 55 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf445…0334backed No15c219.27$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.89333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-55.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc622…8f86backed No20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405540%22 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa55b…e0debacked No21c199.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-34.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7450…b5acbacked No17c199.89$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.351729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x981d…ed7fbacked No30c195.59$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.688744.8%39 W · 48 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf29e…841dbacked No19c179.24$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.063225%8 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No19c175$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.753495.7%20 W · 329 L-25.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x38ea…296dbacked No16c149.97$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2440%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x10ad…827cbacked No22c139.74$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.747041.4%29 W · 41 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+26%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x939b…076dbacked Yes74c132.63$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x49ec…ac1cbacked No20c129.02$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.61428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14dc…f468backed No18c127.85$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.01425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-63.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b96…7f2dbacked Yes78c126.9$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.41475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1033…49d4backed Yes79c125.31$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.72666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe4f…3e65backed No16c123.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.821020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84b8…530cbacked No19c121.6$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.51812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd18d…e7b4backed No33c118.18$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.025425.9%14 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5682…c2b0backed No15c106.73$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd055…e387backed Yes80c99.95$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.991145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-36.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1e8…3b19backed No13c99.36$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f87…83c1backed No16c99.1$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.861338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-34.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a9d…3394backed No16c99.1$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b3c…459fbacked Yes78c88.3$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.323053.3%16 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e2e…2ed6backed No15c88.24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.572634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-37.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa29d…6d1ebacked No25c85$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.152657.7%15 W · 11 L+7.0wins+0.27per pick31cpaid+87.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x5b32…dbcabacked Yes79c80$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.81250%6 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdea5…c77bbacked No22c69.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.41833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-19%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes74c66.47$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9617948%86 W · 93 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No16c65.55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7333329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a40…1214backed No25c50.74$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f1b…e4b4backed Yes75c40.24$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a4e…0bdabacked Yes69c37.13$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.511172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc408…20eebacked Yes74c35.41$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.18742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-34.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc36d…3edabacked No35c33.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.681540%6 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe16c…9081backed Yes49c32.8$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.73825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-47.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No35c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3513054.6%71 W · 59 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes65c16$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.68643%37 W · 49 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4c7…c6bdbacked Yes78c13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.