TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc36d…3eda

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
54
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: UFC, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 53 out of 100; worst CS2 at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT3336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-27.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
CS2 — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group Abacked BC.Game Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.7
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stagebacked 9z · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+183.9%+$23.9
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffsbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.3
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffsbacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$14.88
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group Bbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.74
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5)backed FaZe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$50.71
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3)backed Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$234.26
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winnerbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$85.83
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3)backed Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$74.66
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3)backed Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+290.7%+$55.54
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FaZe (BO3)backed MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$36.87
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3)backed TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3)backed Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+112.8%+$21.43
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons (BO3)backed G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$39.92
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winnerbacked G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$81.5
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$68
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Passion UA - Map 2 Winnerbacked FaZe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+47.1%+$28.8
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winnerbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+33.9%+$14.77
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3)backed B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs FaZe - Map 2 Winnerbacked FaZe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+28.2%+$5.92
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+44.9%+$6.17
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3)backed Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+92.3%+$25.61
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TheMongolz (BO1)backed TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+112.8%+$15.9
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs TheMongolz (BO1)backed TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+100%+$14
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Team Falcons (BO1)backed Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$15.45
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT1540%6 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+69.8%+$21.77
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.34
Over $6M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.08
Over $4M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.68
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$15.76
Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+40.8%+$16.71
Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+100%+$30
No airdrop in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$31.56
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+289.1%+$103.84
Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+144.2%+$74.27
Over $200M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$29
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
All 15 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+426.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Sean Strickland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$155.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.55
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$10.65
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.69
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 4, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$10.9
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.