Token Launches · resolved market
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9b7950b710cf174ac3b9928a9307f250c20f7e367c0d7d0fae7df26cc5cfdc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,133,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,274,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,133,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 724 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8553…e799backed Yes | 74c | 71,759$53,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,198.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0f…78a2backed Yes | 37c | 70,944$25,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,908.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a09…e317backed No | 46c | 65,367$29,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,416.55 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +9.8wins | +0.38per pick | 47cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xef38…ae8cbacked Yes | 28c | 50,946$14,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,390.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a2…d450backed Yes | 19c | 27,211$5,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,164.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…fbbfbacked Yes | 46c | 24,331$11,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,265.5 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2048…f572backed Yes | 13c | 22,254$2,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,863.46 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9c…34d9backed Yes | 53c | 17,382$9,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,212.64 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed No | 69c | 15,656$10,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,808.62 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 42c | 14,881$6,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,625.13 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed No | 76c | 13,924$10,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,350.76 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe551…0a67backed No | 47c | 13,252$6,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,034.44 | 13 | 100%13 W · 0 L | +7.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes | 15c | 12,496$1,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,932.95 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 78c | 11,950$9,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,598.14 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…b175backed Yes | 32c | 11,742$3,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,802.72 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e88…cd4dbacked Yes | 19c | 11,380$2,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,147 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad7…e514backed Yes | 21c | 11,141$2,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,293.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked No | 72c | 10,743$7,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,020.93 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf87d…80dcbacked Yes | 11c | 10,428$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…ba8fbacked No | 18c | 10,267$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,376.9 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x124b…3699backed Yes | 16c | 10,142$1,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,663.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 67c | 10,000$6,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,300 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed4d…d601backed No | 59c | 10,000$5,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,099.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6276…2dd9backed No | 70c | 9,000$6,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,699.99 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…467bbacked Yes | 33c | 8,912$2,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,932.1 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9710…5f99backed Yes | 13c | 8,422$1,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6a…be7ebacked No | 65c | 8,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,800 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f9…c5e8backed No | 14c | 7,691$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,588.81 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +17.9wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes | 11c | 7,668$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.81 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…ce96backed No | 77c | 7,447$5,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,677.83 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9e…5421backed Yes | 26c | 7,000$1,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,819.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…9596backed Yes | 30c | 6,742$2,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d1…0bcdbacked No | 73c | 6,732$4,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,803.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 22c | 6,591$1,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,462.06 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 66c | 6,575$4,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,215.99 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5682…97afbacked No | 79c | 6,500$5,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,347 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064f…ff5abacked No | 80c | 6,430$5,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,286.26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 31c | 6,253$1,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,312.12 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0baf…409cbacked No | 54c | 6,000$3,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,768.67 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb045…d8bcbacked Yes | 33c | 5,479$1,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,786.09 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed No | 70c | 5,041$3,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,520.64 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de3…0321backed Yes | 27c | 4,948$1,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,336.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 4,915$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 4,888$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.38 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae7…9603backed No | 65c | 4,635$3,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,615.78 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…49d4backed Yes | 16c | 4,503$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85a9…2b59backed Yes | 33c | 4,434$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,474.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed No | 45c | 4,385$1,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,404.6 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed No | 49c | 4,280$2,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,189.89 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Yes | 41c | 4,276$1,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,753.02 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43bd…dda3backed No | 72c | 4,266$3,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c5babacked No | 73c | 4,230$3,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,142.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b7…12b9backed Yes | 33c | 4,224$1,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,408.44 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x296d…70f9backed Yes | 35c | 4,074$1,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425.78 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 67c | 4,052$2,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,353.07 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…1325backed No | 61c | 4,045$2,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,597.8 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa77f…e578backed Yes | 13c | 3,785$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.11 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…7a96backed No | 68c | 3,488$2,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110.97 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc348…384dbacked No | 79c | 3,475$2,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.65 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 22c | 3,472$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.16 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 52c | 3,442$1,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,641.22 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x337f…fc4dbacked Yes | 41c | 3,425$1,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,393.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1a…cbaebacked No | 65c | 3,331$2,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd328…973dbacked No | 76c | 3,306$2,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45dc…bbf2backed Yes | 41c | 3,286$1,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,347.28 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 21cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 21c | 3,209$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.28 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked No | 64c | 3,135$2,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134.04 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x13ba…be9fbacked Yes | 55c | 3,109$1,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,716.3 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…a926backed No | 57c | 3,079$1,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,328.18 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a24…4a1fbacked No | 47c | 3,021$1,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,615.8 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551a…7a72backed No | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,760 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +5.0wins | +0.71per pick | 14cpaid | +733.2%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x630d…3a93backed No | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,760 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +4.1wins | +0.68per pick | 15cpaid | +1,034.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc62a…c2c7backed No | 64c | 3,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad9…8d2ebacked No | 66c | 2,988$1,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 2,889$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.35 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 39c | 2,862$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.85 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 63c | 2,625$1,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.06 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 54c | 2,600$1,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,191 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4f…a442backed No | 77c | 2,589$2,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.05 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…f005backed Yes | 40c | 2,576$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed No | 79c | 2,500$1,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.06 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x667d…052dbacked No | 58c | 2,442$1,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae2…8c70backed No | 47c | 2,278$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,201.95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc3…73d1backed Yes | 28c | 2,244$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.9 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked No | 48c | 2,209$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,158.61 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4c…c962backed No | 72c | 2,207$1,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.81 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb5…d941backed Yes | 5c | 2,200$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed No | 72c | 2,160$1,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.8 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…f2a8backed No | 74c | 2,148$1,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce03…5608backed No | 67c | 2,146$1,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.79 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbf…6c43backed No | 65c | 2,138$1,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.67 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed Yes | 32c | 2,106$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.37 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…071ebacked Yes | 10c | 2,000$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.12 | 74 | 18.9%14 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4c…de5bbacked No | 73c | 2,000$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc771…b18fbacked Yes | 33c | 2,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.99 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7a…7625backed No | 77c | 1,950$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f4…32a2backed Yes | 79c | 1,950$1,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,536.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…555ebacked No | 75c | 1,937$1,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda2b…c006backed Yes | 42c | 1,923$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.35 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x940c…b266backed No | 49c | 1,900$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch?this page
- Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Fogo FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- Fogo FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.