Token Launches · resolved market
Fogo FDV above $2B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71f8b6549eb73d92f3e4417452cc40d8734481d7e8ad6da477b1eaf5ab360bee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $366,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $475,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $366,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8553…e799backed Yes | 48c | 24,948$12,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,082.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef38…ae8cbacked Yes | 3c | 19,592$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 10,300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a09…e317backed No | 44c | 6,593$2,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,718.26 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +9.8wins | +0.38per pick | 47cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9e…5421backed Yes | 4c | 6,393$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…ba8fbacked No | 56c | 5,800$3,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,548.38 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e38…bdb3backed Yes | 5c | 5,254$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 5,176$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.28 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6025…84bebacked Yes | 1c | 4,583$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…49d4backed Yes | 1c | 4,267$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 4,244$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064f…ff5abacked Yes | 1c | 3,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b2…b602backed Yes | 1c | 3,252$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb24e…c0bebacked No | 73c | 3,240$2,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.96 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 66c | 3,050$2,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x630d…3a93backed No | 12c | 3,000$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,640 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +4.1wins | +0.68per pick | 15cpaid | +1,034.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 2c | 2,953$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -93.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ea…3ea8backed Yes | 5c | 2,529$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 2,522$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.72 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 2,383$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.79 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 2,246$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.51 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 3c | 2,214$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.47 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b7…12b9backed Yes | 6c | 2,180$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.51 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1de3…0321backed Yes | 4c | 2,138$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b85…47c6backed Yes | 1c | 2,038$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 1,945$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,711$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.22 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,516$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551a…7a72backed No | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +5.0wins | +0.71per pick | 14cpaid | +733.2%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,484$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 75 | 4%3 W · 72 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 3c | 1,306$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 26c | 1,300$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.43 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…4a87backed Yes | 1c | 1,273$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed No | 38c | 1,120$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.93 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe610…60b9backed Yes | 4c | 1,111$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7c…3ecabacked No | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +5.1wins | +0.73per pick | 12cpaid | +733.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 894.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 4c | 804.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…389dbacked Yes | 11c | 740.1$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.41 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 729.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…4694backed Yes | 6c | 658.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4228…e9d8backed No | 12c | 500$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +217%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf944…c249backed No | 12c | 500$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 10cpaid | +507.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x639d…a250backed Yes | 4c | 480$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…6d57backed No | 80c | 450$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 5c | 443.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 7c | 417.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 77 | 3.9%3 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…1c91backed Yes | 4c | 333$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7883…1da8backed Yes | 5c | 308.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc483…8ac8backed Yes | 5c | 295.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3f…645bbacked Yes | 4c | 282.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 7c | 179.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…5cc4backed No | 69c | 178.55$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc65…5adebacked Yes | 16c | 124$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe596…79cebacked Yes | 15c | 122.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 10c | 101$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 110 | 7.3%8 W · 102 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 21c | 61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 75c | 20.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fogo FDV above $2B one day after launch?this page
- Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- Fogo FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.