TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof B8, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,607,928
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,901,262

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,607,928 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 446 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed B828c792,064$221,735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221,734.839942.4%42 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Natus Vincere72c150,000$107,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,5007363%46 W · 27 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+22%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0979…8d9bbacked Natus Vincere72c138,889$100,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,888.89450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Natus Vincere72c79,200$57,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,1766147.5%29 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe74a…40eebacked Natus Vincere72c75,000$54,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,0002653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked B828c73,490$20,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,612.056160.7%37 W · 24 L+8.6wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+28.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Natus Vincere72c42,778$30,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,977.7681751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63d5…cc5ebacked Natus Vincere72c35,006$25,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,801.63333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick74cpaid-53.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2ab…f2c3backed Natus Vincere73c33,924$24,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,159.492958.6%17 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34e6…cd63backed Natus Vincere72c26,806$19,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,505.56250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed B829c20,000$5,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,8008042.5%34 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Natus Vincere72c19,686$14,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,488.771,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Natus Vincere72c19,612$14,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,491.4615050.7%76 W · 74 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Natus Vincere71c17,523$12,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,994.9228453.5%152 W · 132 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed B828c17,347$4,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,857.0821051%107 W · 103 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked B810c15,993$1,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,593.353426.5%9 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3dd…a7e0backed B829c14,524$4,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,211.839247.8%44 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb4a…4ef5backed Natus Vincere72c14,206$10,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,977.68977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick64cpaid+18.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked B89c14,082$1,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,267.3883652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed B827c14,035$3,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,789.4530340.3%122 W · 181 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ba…4e57backed Natus Vincere73c13,866$10,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,742.017349.3%36 W · 37 L-7.5wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed B86c13,414$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.818624.2%45 W · 141 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Natus Vincere73c12,783$9,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,451.411656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked B829c12,700$3,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,68317148%82 W · 89 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b48…4705backed Natus Vincere72c11,906$8,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,363.6510252%53 W · 49 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54b0…df70backed Natus Vincere72c11,337$8,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,174.343956.4%22 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Natus Vincere71c11,095$7,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,217.5423852.9%126 W · 112 L-0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbec7…5977backed Natus Vincere72c11,000$7,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,079.9957647.6%274 W · 302 L-25.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed B810c10,792$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.164,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf512…40e3backed Natus Vincere71c10,383$7,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,003.082544%11 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1eb0…d25bbacked B827c10,010$2,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,701.727133.2%90 W · 181 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Natus Vincere72c10,000$7,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,80046949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb94f…04d8backed B80c9,769$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed B89c9,536$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.181,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Natus Vincere74c9,263$6,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,421.0453746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1052…53dabacked Natus Vincere73c8,904$6,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,404.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked B812c8,769$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.53,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed Natus Vincere72c8,600$6,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,40822849.6%113 W · 115 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Natus Vincere73c8,219$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,219.185644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed Natus Vincere76c7,758$5,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,899.3521055.7%117 W · 93 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdedb…f657backed B828c7,679$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,150.12520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-53.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14f3…0c3dbacked Natus Vincere72c7,400$5,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,07211353.1%60 W · 53 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef92…9df5backed Natus Vincere72c7,231$5,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,024.662972.4%21 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+23.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Natus Vincere72c7,118$5,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,993.0410549.5%52 W · 53 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa797…41bebacked B87c7,039$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.722152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cdb…4d30backed Natus Vincere71c6,982$4,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,000.844862.5%30 W · 18 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+35.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd36b…d4d4backed Natus Vincere72c6,963$5,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,949.51361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+40.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Natus Vincere72c6,894$4,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,950.481,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Natus Vincere77c6,767$5,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,575.5710442.3%44 W · 60 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x00d6…b2e0backed Natus Vincere72c6,500$4,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8204562.2%28 W · 17 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+33.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x19ff…d0d0backed Natus Vincere71c6,500$4,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,884.999234.8%32 W · 60 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9095…2f3fbacked Natus Vincere72c6,025$4,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6878852.3%46 W · 42 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc59f…f5f8backed Natus Vincere72c6,022$4,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,681.471872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked B828c5,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40014934.9%52 W · 97 L-14.1wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc609…7b6fbacked Natus Vincere72c4,914$3,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,375.921181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.27per pick55cpaid+52.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked Natus Vincere75c4,878$3,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,226.3912153.7%65 W · 56 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Natus Vincere71c4,700$3,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,36344648.4%216 W · 230 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2a3…4555backed B89c4,628$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.31425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-63.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked B87c4,486$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.323,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked B828c4,247$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,183.4410442.3%44 W · 60 L-7.8wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x546a…36fdbacked Natus Vincere72c4,232$3,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,184.994047.5%19 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56c6…f706backed Natus Vincere71c4,211$2,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,221.194362.8%27 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Natus Vincere72c4,100$2,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,141.5739239.8%156 W · 236 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked B818c3,987$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.861,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf832…c8cebacked Natus Vincere72c3,799$2,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,063.72366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed Natus Vincere72c3,774$2,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.616956.5%39 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed Natus Vincere71c3,600$2,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,04410252%53 W · 49 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked B810c3,254$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.8832552.6%171 W · 154 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…1e5bbacked Natus Vincere72c3,080$2,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862.434147.5%162 W · 179 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…1a4ebacked Natus Vincere72c3,018$2,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.144630.4%14 W · 32 L-9.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-42.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Natus Vincere71c3,000$2,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87075450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d3e…783bbacked Natus Vincere72c3,000$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe831…a42abacked Natus Vincere72c3,000$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8401266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed B827c3,000$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.991,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…9b5ebacked B86c2,900$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.073132.3%10 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked B823c2,778$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.6461228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed B829c2,769$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80314441.7%60 W · 84 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x414f…29a2backed Natus Vincere72c2,746$1,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.832458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Natus Vincere73c2,740$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.7319448.5%94 W · 100 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked B829c2,668$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.638654.7%47 W · 39 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde67…bab9backed Natus Vincere72c2,517$1,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.693644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed B813c2,452$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.665,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24f8…0841backed B88c2,439$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7acb…8c1dbacked Natus Vincere72c2,426$1,747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.2510450%52 W · 52 L-6.9wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-21.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x275f…ca15backed B829c2,356$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.63742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed Natus Vincere71c2,222$1,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.377256.9%41 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Natus Vincere74c2,193$1,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.831,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa44b…18f5backed B85c2,141$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd19e…fabbbacked B829c2,130$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.6862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.22per pick41cpaid+52.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf58d…914abacked Natus Vincere72c2,109$1,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.579252.2%48 W · 44 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked Natus Vincere72c2,083$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.3325261.5%155 W · 97 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed B825c2,080$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.385736.8%21 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c590backed B89c2,025$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.3114332.2%46 W · 97 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-33.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd92d…e560backed Natus Vincere71c2,000$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58058651%299 W · 287 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed B827c2,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54024139%94 W · 147 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ed…617ebacked B89c1,779$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1572441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddc3…5f93backed B820c1,773$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-43.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed B829c1,724$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006142.6%26 W · 35 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3980…6820backed B89c1,667$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501225%3 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed B83c1,660$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.761,5009.9%148 W · 1,352 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.