TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Vitalityof Vitality, FaZe
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,107,596
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,007,537

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,107,596 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,390 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed FaZe28c828,241$229,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229,350.529942.4%42 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3dd…a7e0backed Vitality74c405,405$300,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105,405.419247.8%44 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Vitality73c125,204$91,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,805.1310551.4%54 W · 51 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked Vitality73c80,076$58,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,293.369861.2%60 W · 38 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Vitality72c75,000$54,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,999.997363%46 W · 27 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+22%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed FaZe22c74,043$16,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,291.341656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed FaZe27c69,359$18,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,585.46147.5%29 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3bd…f543backed Vitality72c59,153$42,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,562.574445.5%20 W · 24 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+66.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed FaZe5c55,645$2,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,739.8912150.4%61 W · 60 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked FaZe28c51,385$14,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,296.3217148%82 W · 89 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Vitality74c50,568$37,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,255.8581751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked FaZe25c50,000$12,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,500366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed Vitality74c49,540$36,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,063.3711758.1%68 W · 49 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe74a…40eebacked Vitality74c46,226$34,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,018.872653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8fa…77b5backed Vitality66c42,615$28,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,405.63721.6%8 W · 29 L-9.6wins-0.26per pick48cpaid-58.2%equal weight33-0.16 edge/pick
0x85d9…717bbacked Vitality76c36,335$27,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,673.813767.6%25 W · 12 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde92…5e10backed Vitality56c34,571$19,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,211.391258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be6…2006backed FaZe45c33,391$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,0002965.5%19 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked FaZe28c32,440$8,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,928.081,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd88…0c7ebacked FaZe17c27,923$4,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,847.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2038…d06abacked FaZe22c26,947$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,000580%4 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+88%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Vitality72c26,003$18,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,390.751,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed FaZe29c23,311$6,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,760.2611655.2%64 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed FaZe13c22,850$2,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,874.6818624.2%45 W · 141 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x274f…fbf4backed Vitality68c22,205$15,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,128.068862.5%55 W · 33 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked FaZe27c20,000$5,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,3007646.1%35 W · 41 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed FaZe43c19,729$8,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,476.354,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x16f0…a28dbacked Vitality71c18,358$13,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,292.845565.5%36 W · 19 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Vitality70c18,351$12,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,505.225842.2%109 W · 149 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b48…4705backed FaZe27c18,161$4,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,853.4710252%53 W · 49 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed FaZe34c16,922$5,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,819.661,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15fe…86bebacked Vitality72c16,736$12,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,621.3113646.3%63 W · 73 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked FaZe25c16,355$4,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,157.961,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbec7…5977backed FaZe29c15,000$4,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,349.9957647.6%274 W · 302 L-25.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x47fa…8bf8backed FaZe36c14,998$5,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,412.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Vitality71c14,888$10,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,278.761,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed FaZe13c14,834$1,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,906.0153746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Vitality74c14,712$10,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,894.68758.6%51 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc85…3532backed FaZe27c14,500$3,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,914.992548%12 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked FaZe33c14,269$4,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,655.771,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2c1…9fe2backed FaZe15c13,913$2,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0591855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc0c…cfc9backed FaZe33c13,710$4,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,469.547245.8%33 W · 39 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72ab…edaabacked FaZe6c13,569$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.5770%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb5…e30dbacked FaZe12c13,420$1,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,613.521315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6772…c2d4backed FaZe13c13,370$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,759.91250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+47.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e5b…d4ecbacked FaZe27c13,054$3,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,562.343231.3%10 W · 22 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick18cpaid+19.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked Vitality60c12,534$7,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,014.9921251.4%109 W · 103 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c9…2c23backed Vitality74c12,512$9,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,253.1619660.7%119 W · 77 L-13.9wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-7.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked FaZe2c12,221$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.313426.5%9 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked FaZe26c12,139$3,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,109.153,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5ad…be8cbacked FaZe43c11,696$5,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,029.164858.3%28 W · 20 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+30.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed FaZe18c11,327$2,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,041.9542142%177 W · 244 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed FaZe27c10,966$2,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,978.4314441.7%60 W · 84 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4087…1665backed FaZe35c10,919$3,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,800.362532%8 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-26.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf117…e14dbacked FaZe9c10,790$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb4d…de5abacked Vitality58c10,770$6,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,523.3924440.6%99 W · 145 L-12.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x930c…228fbacked FaZe7c10,592$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+201%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19ff…d0d0backed FaZe25c10,334$2,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6209234.8%32 W · 60 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked Vitality74c10,273$7,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,671.0725261.5%155 W · 97 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb12c…1680backed Vitality73c10,239$7,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,719.421573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+20%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6576…6cc5backed FaZe29c10,000$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,900333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed FaZe27c10,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70024139%94 W · 147 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff9f…7c29backed Vitality71c10,000$7,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,900366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Vitality73c10,000$7,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,699.9971645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Vitality72c10,000$7,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,799.9746949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed Vitality73c9,964$7,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,690.3172453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed Vitality71c9,260$6,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,642.1911654.3%63 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57e4…835ebacked Vitality72c9,173$6,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,573.332100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a09…db1cbacked Vitality64c9,120$5,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,313.998261%50 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50f9…c327backed FaZe34c8,537$2,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,878.5117761%108 W · 69 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed FaZe27c8,442$2,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,271.295736.8%21 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a21…fb6cbacked FaZe6c8,371$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.74862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick39cpaid+40.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6bd…b05abacked FaZe27c7,885$2,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,12919834.8%69 W · 129 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf512…40e3backed FaZe27c7,669$2,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,050.772544%11 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c8a…80e6backed Vitality66c7,529$4,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,543.11520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-69.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8a8…48c0backed Vitality64c7,312$4,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,614.5725251.2%129 W · 123 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4b0…5c3fbacked Vitality70c7,103$4,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,120.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed FaZe32c7,074$2,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,283.5915641%64 W · 92 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfc9…7552backed Vitality73c7,046$5,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,902.3116749.1%82 W · 85 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66ec…8c18backed FaZe18c7,004$1,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,275.838416.7%14 W · 70 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-38.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf38b…ff41backed FaZe25c7,000$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,750911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick27cpaid-77.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x10b0…9b5ebacked FaZe28c6,968$1,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9513132.3%10 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa453…b665backed Vitality55c6,824$3,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,070.849655.2%53 W · 43 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbcff…9527backed Vitality72c6,660$4,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,864.82853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed FaZe26c6,592$1,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,718.2439239.8%156 W · 236 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x733b…7260backed Vitality74c6,500$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,700.362259.1%13 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick72cpaid-20.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x15ff…62ccbacked FaZe31c6,452$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0005547.3%26 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e8c…9a80backed FaZe13c6,440$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.21233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-39.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6da…7e3ebacked Vitality69c6,357$4,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,982.45450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed FaZe26c6,306$1,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,639.561233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-40.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf301…4ce1backed FaZe11c6,108$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6925543.6%24 W · 31 L+6.5wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+27.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb525…bdc7backed FaZe36c6,000$2,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,135.5325845.7%118 W · 140 L-18.3wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6010…1182backed FaZe27c6,000$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,620666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.36per pick30cpaid+128.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed FaZe27c5,800$1,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,565.9923852.9%126 W · 112 L-0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9503…c47fbacked FaZe2c5,793$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-25.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcd87…ac38backed Vitality54c5,693$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,593.0110047%47 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c9c…bcfcbacked FaZe27c5,687$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,535.4315255.3%84 W · 68 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6629…d64fbacked FaZe27c5,677$1,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5531233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Vitality70c5,658$3,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,708.576152.5%32 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33b0…e5f9backed FaZe4c5,632$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.