TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,954,917
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,220,025

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,954,917 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,888 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8fba…433abacked Yes26c772,668$204,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204,425.461428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+52.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x593d…7d5dbacked Yes29c367,409$108,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108,128.734214.3%6 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No67c155,790$104,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,375.8337740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No72c115,813$83,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,074.0813850.7%70 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e0f…9556backed Yes15c98,567$15,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,100.342240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes3c67,628$2,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,213.7242818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No77c52,411$40,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,891.2320549.8%102 W · 103 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes20c52,266$10,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,518.6625518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes21c52,062$11,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,186.9635819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…4597backed No65c45,483$29,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,960.9912654%68 W · 58 L+18.8wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+128.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes25c45,129$11,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,098.989617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7525…cde1backed No65c43,169$28,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,149.444537.8%17 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac3e…3b0fbacked Yes3c39,055$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,349.612425%6 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+89.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No77c35,870$27,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,367.1820336.9%75 W · 128 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb84…4fbcbacked No77c31,870$24,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,205.881844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed No68c31,469$21,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,222.496262.9%39 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e55…e3e2backed No78c29,935$23,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,5465056%28 W · 22 L+9.1wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+138.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed No78c29,914$23,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,488.594656.5%26 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No71c29,029$20,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,458.6131241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcbe4…ee11backed Yes5c27,924$1,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,289911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.18per pick30cpaid-80.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes17c25,186$4,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,245.166825%17 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No65c25,056$16,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,782.6821531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5011…220ebacked No76c24,626$18,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,898.7610928.4%31 W · 78 L-15.2wins-0.14per pick42cpaid+12.5%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x4cb8…e48fbacked Yes33c24,421$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,0005215.4%8 W · 44 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+29.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb40…a284backed Yes24c22,152$5,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,272.681250%6 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+74.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No70c21,963$15,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,493.920736.2%75 W · 132 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e89…5593backed No73c21,825$15,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,834.692548%12 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes28c21,753$6,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,086.5912634.9%44 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcdb1…276cbacked No75c19,778$14,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,857.9113250%66 W · 66 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed No77c18,653$14,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,311.624149.4%119 W · 122 L+1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc360…dbb2backed No76c17,629$13,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,274.696365.1%41 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff91…ab3abacked No77c17,560$13,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,966.6716650%83 W · 83 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7d2…68cabacked Yes29c17,419$4,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,967.481233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfe4…13eebacked Yes16c17,104$2,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,660.76238.7%2 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed No73c16,914$12,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,524.7516739.5%66 W · 101 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed No73c16,800$12,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,558.448150.6%41 W · 40 L+12.7wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+33.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed No70c15,221$10,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,499.618036.3%29 W · 51 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-24.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2b7…1622backed Yes29c14,658$4,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,320.12633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes11c14,536$1,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,540.838725.3%22 W · 65 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick19cpaid+3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes25c14,292$3,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,555.0113829%40 W · 98 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid+7.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x20fe…f411backed No73c14,210$10,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,904.861190.9%10 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.27per pick64cpaid+43.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8129…5f30backed Yes4c14,193$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.25244.2%1 W · 23 L-3.5wins-0.14per pick19cpaid-85.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No70c14,014$9,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,148.3919930.7%61 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No70c13,675$9,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,130.359154.9%50 W · 41 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No67c13,561$9,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,521.731649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe24…cc8bbacked Yes33c13,554$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,500714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-42.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30a7…02fabacked Yes29c12,603$3,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,675.628515.3%13 W · 72 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-60.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a01…7c0abacked No78c12,500$9,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7207042.9%30 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c12,023$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.247135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed No79c11,938$9,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,566.348058.8%47 W · 33 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes15c11,571$1,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,700.6844224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x371c…c236backed Yes16c11,161$1,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,747.3413532.6%44 W · 91 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+24.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed No80c11,039$8,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,247.7625843.4%112 W · 146 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fff…be78backed No70c11,000$7,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,349.15950.8%30 W · 29 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No71c10,880$7,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,108.497855.1%43 W · 35 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda45…5fa4backed Yes17c10,662$1,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,796.1830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No78c10,609$8,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,385.5626138.7%101 W · 160 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes17c10,410$1,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,721.1636626.8%98 W · 268 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90f7…2501backed No73c10,144$7,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,729.1714147.5%67 W · 74 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b4b…541bbacked No73c10,000$7,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7351926.3%5 W · 14 L-4.2wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-62.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4da7…355ebacked No69c10,000$6,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1005642.9%24 W · 32 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+30.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc480…bb68backed Yes35c10,000$3,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,518.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf19…6402backed Yes24c9,964$2,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,428.4710335.9%37 W · 66 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes28c9,822$2,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,780.2915230.3%46 W · 106 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbf…dac3backed Yes4c9,812$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick11cpaid+138.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb89f…1c44backed No73c9,732$7,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,668.276942%29 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b3e…65e4backed Yes33c9,635$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,200922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-44.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd95…e333backed No80c9,634$7,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,929.322100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+43.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1bf…f74bbacked Yes21c9,500$1,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,993.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbf7…fbeabacked No77c9,430$7,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,201.126549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde8f…8fd8backed No77c8,887$6,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,001.833250%16 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes31c8,830$2,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,733.3136750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x86d6…8a05backed Yes34c8,615$2,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,896.532050%10 W · 10 L+4.3wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+143.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No72c8,600$6,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,424.1945843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfbc…8323backed Yes31c8,571$2,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,645.851520%3 W · 12 L-3.6wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-66.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No69c8,500$5,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,605.9722547.1%106 W · 119 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes32c8,436$2,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,732.4317755.4%98 W · 79 L+17.5wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No76c8,416$6,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,045.3516541.2%68 W · 97 L+0.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd055…d012backed Yes26c8,357$2,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,144.551127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+17.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe331…dbbbbacked Yes25c8,273$2,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,035.972429.2%7 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-22.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed No75c8,214$6,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,065.3419531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked No58c8,050$4,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,362.888817%15 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed Yes36c8,000$2,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,879.918749.4%43 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes25c7,736$1,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,901.0714325.9%37 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40f1…15f9backed Yes2c7,650$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1534526.7%12 W · 33 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-28.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9fe8…2c91backed Yes27c7,650$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0504238.1%16 W · 26 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+24.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes17c7,636$1,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3044436.4%16 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes12c7,622$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.523823.7%9 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1208…d5fdbacked Yes28c7,579$2,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,13370%0 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c7,500$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.874195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes32c7,500$2,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,434.3415232.9%50 W · 102 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+19.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Yes18c7,283$1,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,307.541250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked No76c6,999$5,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,665.32458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc80f…93c8backed No72c6,984$5,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,939.1413022.3%29 W · 101 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-48.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2fc…659cbacked Yes2c6,867$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed No76c6,845$5,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,635.154259.5%25 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No77c6,792$5,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,542.4251138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x00e1…b679backed Yes34c6,788$2,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,292.021323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-57%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3bea…f95abacked Yes37c6,686$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500319.7%3 W · 28 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-60.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No75c6,660$5,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,632.9617839.9%71 W · 107 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.