China Taiwan · resolved market
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb215decbedd846168842f6e207f09bd5f50ce51d2191f238887d976ec21b6f66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,106,568
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,997,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,106,568 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 405 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 8c | 126,431$9,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,694.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +92%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x469c…309bbacked Yes | 2c | 102,811$1,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,677.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16e2…5f01backed Yes | 1c | 92,942$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 4c | 40,988$1,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,782.38 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ff…c9a3backed Yes | 10c | 39,442$3,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,780 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 2c | 32,155$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 4c | 30,501$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430f…5947backed Yes | 5c | 24,380$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0059…a974backed Yes | 8c | 24,156$1,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,883.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1545…3599backed Yes | 3c | 22,322$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 5c | 21,918$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f5…3723backed Yes | 6c | 20,862$1,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,316.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…d66fbacked Yes | 8c | 20,632$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…fd17backed Yes | 1c | 16,783$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…3352backed Yes | 2c | 16,509$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…f147backed Yes | 4c | 16,038$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e4…fb34backed Yes | 3c | 15,941$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…5068backed Yes | 7c | 13,818$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7144…6624backed Yes | 3c | 13,171$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3783…f624backed Yes | 4c | 12,380$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefc1…dfcdbacked Yes | 8c | 12,356$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…5166backed Yes | 3c | 12,349$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 8cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 1c | 11,499$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfb…7632backed Yes | 9c | 11,111$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 6c | 10,413$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.55 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f3…2822backed Yes | 5c | 10,024$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 6c | 10,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a8…60efbacked Yes | 5c | 9,939$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78cd…450cbacked Yes | 7c | 9,748$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f0…f08bbacked Yes | 6c | 9,332$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 8,875$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6da…20a8backed Yes | 5c | 8,484$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb698…976abacked Yes | 1c | 8,427$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 6c | 8,290$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +268.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91ca…0957backed Yes | 2c | 8,264$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x853d…e760backed Yes | 9c | 8,090$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x979d…fcfabacked Yes | 7c | 8,050$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7217…fdbdbacked Yes | 8c | 8,026$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes | 3c | 7,900$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…7937backed Yes | 1c | 7,478$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 7c | 7,236$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 6c | 7,200$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 6,994$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.29 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x933f…54cebacked Yes | 7c | 6,607$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff4a…e44ebacked Yes | 2c | 6,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 6,166$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.24 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d60…c8c2backed Yes | 9c | 6,066$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…8c02backed Yes | 2c | 6,001$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x305f…e466backed Yes | 5c | 6,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe537…1eebbacked Yes | 3c | 5,900$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb3…fbe9backed Yes | 6c | 5,700$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes | 6c | 5,600$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc29…f1bbbacked Yes | 1c | 5,571$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 5,523$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.3 | 46 | 4.3%2 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 1c | 5,378$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0508…d8dbbacked Yes | 2c | 5,133$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed Yes | 6c | 5,046$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b5…8378backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ff…4c16backed Yes | 2c | 4,897$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8276…48e4backed Yes | 4c | 4,573$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed86…6ee1backed Yes | 8c | 4,518$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c4…88bebacked Yes | 11c | 4,498$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc565…6662backed Yes | 7c | 4,431$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8a…a328backed Yes | 1c | 4,195$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…6632backed Yes | 5c | 4,163$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 5c | 4,068$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.42 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7696…ecb7backed Yes | 2c | 3,995$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4974…130cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,950$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…c087backed Yes | 12c | 3,708$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4db6…9842backed Yes | 6c | 3,582$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc027…eb78backed Yes | 6c | 3,542$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…6a86backed Yes | 8c | 3,530$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 2c | 3,453$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.96 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 8c | 3,388$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.07 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,345$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1962…aa3ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,333$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcac5…45e9backed Yes | 7c | 3,262$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9d…d144backed Yes | 8c | 3,250$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebe…a25ebacked Yes | 6c | 3,220$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b0…3d89backed Yes | 6c | 3,201$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5d…3047backed Yes | 8c | 3,125$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde76…8992backed Yes | 7c | 3,022$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85e7…5e49backed Yes | 7c | 3,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa10e…6e86backed Yes | 7c | 3,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x845f…f71bbacked Yes | 8c | 2,915$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…2b64backed Yes | 3c | 2,805$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8361…8e6dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,708$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd143…83ecbacked Yes | 7c | 2,696$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b91…982dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,652$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45f2…2a41backed Yes | 6c | 2,633$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1d…f38ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,556$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,512$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.39 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 7c | 2,400$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes | 3c | 2,283$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…b3f6backed Yes | 9c | 2,222$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 2c | 2,222$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x892d…14b0backed Yes | 8c | 2,202$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 8c | 2,123$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.51 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…26d1backed Yes | 3c | 2,052$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.