Token Launches · resolved market
P2P FDV above $20M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf846e04fe2cf4f76dae8cf238541569d2c1faec5fd97a65a0759c642ce4866d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbbf…b4f5backed Yes | 15c | 2,656$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.16 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005b…2947backed Yes | 12c | 1,700$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc81c…e454backed Yes | 4c | 990$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa91a…c6c9backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbec…dcbdbacked Yes | 13c | 499.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…ebaebacked No | 80c | 497.85$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.57 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…ed7fbacked No | 78c | 492.64$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.38 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 22c | 472.7$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.99 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes | 20c | 410$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e80…f694backed Yes | 13c | 301.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -6.1wins | -0.24per pick | 48cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 21c | 297.03$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked No | 76c | 290.26$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.66 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x817f…bf28backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 76 | 6.6%5 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbebf…4e07backed No | 80c | 176.01$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa98b…6086backed No | 77c | 165.67$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0f…708ebacked Yes | 7c | 161.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked Yes | 20c | 128.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa7…2e3cbacked Yes | 19c | 117.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x416d…2dc9backed No | 76c | 105.16$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -4.2wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1988…54fbbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ca…ee4bbacked Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +135%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…1ed2backed Yes | 15c | 88.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 14c | 86.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -7.7wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -82%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa01a…4497backed Yes | 20c | 66.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- P2P FDV above $20M one day after launch?this page
- P2P FDV above $10M one day after launch?Yes won
- P2P FDV above $15M one day after launch?No won
- P2P FDV above $5M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.