Token Launches · resolved market
P2P FDV above $15M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd75c8bd584a7b9c8e858ed5740f0a580249407b3961096ac5a945b5e3de91f5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked No | 65c | 1,608$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.25 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0b…c3dfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbf…b4f5backed Yes | 31c | 1,259$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.64 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 34c | 1,150$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.98 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -7.7wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -82%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…d696backed No | 72c | 1,058$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.17 | 72 | 70.8%51 W · 21 L | +20.9wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +190%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x23f4…c234backed Yes | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b64…ebdebacked Yes | 3c | 888.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa91a…c6c9backed Yes | 35c | 787.39$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.06 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7371…cadebacked No | 65c | 625.26$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.84 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…1f7bbacked No | 56c | 600$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a6…588ebacked No | 68c | 543.73$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe02…be9dbacked Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +10.1wins | +0.31per pick | 39cpaid | +135.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…e058backed No | 70c | 478.4$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.52 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 76 | 6.6%5 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbec…dcbdbacked Yes | 25c | 399.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa794…42adbacked Yes | 33c | 330.24$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.98 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…361dbacked No | 55c | 320.62$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.28 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 22c | 304.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9965…b6cbbacked No | 63c | 301.27$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.98 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4822…0de4backed Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 37c | 271.64$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.51 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +13.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4218…4814backed Yes | 32c | 270$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb98a…0550backed No | 78c | 250.06$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.01 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 30c | 240.19$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.57 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 7c | 223.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc81c…e454backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed Yes | 34c | 112.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 35c | 98.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc2…d305backed No | 70c | 98.7$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…f9c0backed Yes | 33c | 61.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6520…cf00backed Yes | 38c | 54.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd972…c9f4backed No | 67c | 48.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd533…d6a1backed No | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc9…a153backed No | 74c | 41.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…9a59backed Yes | 35c | 38.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 31c | 34.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…16a2backed No | 68c | 32.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 39cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…649fbacked Yes | 38c | 27.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f59…e61dbacked Yes | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed No | 64c | 26.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b77…b1e1backed Yes | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- P2P FDV above $15M one day after launch?this page
- P2P FDV above $10M one day after launch?Yes won
- P2P FDV above $20M one day after launch?No won
- P2P FDV above $5M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.