Token Launches · resolved market
P2P FDV above $5M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e2d217e222ddc7f49f1cae7b79941ad891de1b2247404c8fdd0215ee24e52b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $149,731
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $177,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,731 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 4c | 25,687$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.91 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…a996backed No | 3c | 4,600$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.6 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…a3e7backed No | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x561e…2093backed No | 5c | 2,500$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…1f7bbacked No | 5c | 2,227$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.36 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…4daebacked No | 1c | 2,100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…b912backed No | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebfd…dd70backed No | 11c | 1,900$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.2 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…904cbacked No | 5c | 1,889$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.09 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f9…efa4backed No | 3c | 1,700$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa026…734cbacked No | 4c | 1,651$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 1,580$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 2c | 1,499$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 76 | 6.6%5 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 4c | 1,481$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed No | 6c | 1,418$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e35…7447backed No | 3c | 1,335$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa91a…c6c9backed No | 1c | 1,326$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 5c | 1,254$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -7.7wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -82%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb10a…ab03backed Yes | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +9.4wins | +0.28per pick | 34cpaid | +193.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…cf54backed No | 5c | 1,038$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…0d1cbacked No | 9c | 1,008$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.77 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc428…458abacked No | 5c | 970$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked No | 6c | 948.21$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.56 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb73…25d3backed No | 7c | 942.02$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 4c | 793.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6944…3902backed No | 3c | 700$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2b…0728backed No | 6c | 600$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 33cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa9…4baabacked No | 5c | 521.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 5c | 507.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…2600backed No | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x822e…5febbacked No | 8c | 499.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…e058backed No | 3c | 494.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked No | 5c | 475.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 6c | 448.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…e7b4backed No | 6c | 424.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf17…6cc6backed No | 5c | 380$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +8.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe800…1199backed No | 5c | 366.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…1ed2backed No | 4c | 316.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…ed7fbacked No | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab1…9595backed No | 6c | 296.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 5c | 254.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf98…d0bfbacked No | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 22cpaid | +81%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- P2P FDV above $5M one day after launch?this page
- P2P FDV above $10M one day after launch?Yes won
- P2P FDV above $15M one day after launch?No won
- P2P FDV above $20M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.