Token Launches · resolved market
P2P FDV above $10M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa77baa538165ea5eecf9566ca668cef54399b7da5c911fd4d102cbaea17cd8b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 7c | 20,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…c869backed No | 13c | 3,582$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.75 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked No | 25c | 3,479$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.24 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbf…b4f5backed No | 3c | 2,484$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed No | 33c | 2,483$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.74 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45d4…c481backed Yes | 73c | 2,262$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c90…5bacbacked No | 13c | 2,200$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed No | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe79c…c715backed No | 10c | 1,954$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.42 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebfd…dd70backed No | 10c | 1,810$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 5c | 1,755$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.76 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 73c | 1,705$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.55 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…e058backed No | 21c | 1,544$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.74 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005b…2947backed No | 14c | 1,400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 8c | 1,262$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.52 | 76 | 6.6%5 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 17c | 1,071$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.73 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -7.7wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -82%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…904cbacked No | 24c | 1,070$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.83 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +13.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc3…73d1backed Yes | 41c | 900$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…ebaebacked No | 59c | 873.67$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.46 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 21c | 837.88$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.83 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 8c | 800$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c3…a32fbacked No | 8c | 795.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9965…b6cbbacked No | 10c | 731.76$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.41 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711e…8858backed No | 17c | 725.74$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.11 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +207.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa91a…c6c9backed No | 11c | 610.29$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.13 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 9c | 561.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…1f7bbacked No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a58…4ababacked No | 13c | 405.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed No | 4c | 399.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked No | 7c | 369.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b34…be64backed No | 12c | 356.84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…eccabacked No | 11c | 349.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c8…3025backed No | 14c | 319.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 6c | 257.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…ed56backed No | 21c | 252.09$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e35…7447backed No | 19c | 232.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75c9…9205backed No | 11c | 206.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x894d…6916backed Yes | 79c | 203.39$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…6ba9backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 199.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfb…e887backed No | 9c | 187.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…f992backed No | 12c | 180.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff2…90e4backed No | 14c | 156.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2f…72a9backed No | 11c | 155.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…b6c6backed Yes | 70c | 154.98$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.3 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 10c | 138.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c77…6e76backed No | 13c | 134.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d89…c771backed No | 11c | 130.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…b16dbacked No | 24c | 127$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 78c | 124.14$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked No | 9c | 115.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe800…1199backed No | 21c | 114.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…1ed2backed No | 28c | 113.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x196c…0ffdbacked No | 20c | 106.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6520…cf00backed Yes | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41de…7946backed No | 19c | 92.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…649fbacked Yes | 78c | 66.64$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b3…c439backed Yes | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f59…e61dbacked Yes | 77c | 25.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbec…dcbdbacked Yes | 60c | 18.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- P2P FDV above $10M one day after launch?this page
- P2P FDV above $15M one day after launch?No won
- P2P FDV above $20M one day after launch?No won
- P2P FDV above $5M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.