Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81b06cb917c9a2aabc67a7765bc3c640e88a699bbf451b29915049c0766cde04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,033,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,186,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,033,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,298 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3541…462ebacked Yes | 60c | 136,507$81,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54,807.18 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked No | 38c | 128,826$48,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,320.97 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94a4…6356backed No | 34c | 123,303$41,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,382.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 45c | 120,041$53,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,504.66 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -8.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…8d62backed Yes | 66c | 118,280$77,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,518.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 64c | 111,404$71,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,403.31 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked Yes | 70c | 96,649$67,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,241.87 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…5839backed No | 45c | 93,741$42,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,347.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…914abacked No | 1c | 86,093$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 1cpaid | +2,400.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed Yes | 75c | 82,066$61,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,454.06 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fc…9606backed Yes | 56c | 76,263$42,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,863.52 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 56c | 75,030$42,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,790.01 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 39c | 74,522$29,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,138.98 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…8708backed No | 2c | 65,876$1,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,607.57 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 55c | 63,286$35,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,282.38 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x436f…2c7fbacked No | 33c | 62,995$20,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,936.95 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…1dc2backed Yes | 62c | 58,617$36,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,375.06 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 61c | 52,588$32,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,479.57 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed Yes | 61c | 52,401$32,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,239.91 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 65c | 52,383$33,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,495.88 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 52c | 48,960$25,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,563.15 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b4…1f6ebacked No | 38c | 45,834$17,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,452.06 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 50c | 44,405$22,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,147.1 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +10.4wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +50%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9e…3a0ebacked Yes | 62c | 42,684$26,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,106.19 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…5016backed No | 48c | 42,636$20,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,372.92 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcb…63efbacked No | 8c | 38,377$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,200 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 41c | 37,378$15,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,160.99 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 56c | 36,568$20,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,261.7 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 30c | 32,568$9,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,903.9 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf539…6c6abacked No | 43c | 31,000$13,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,369.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…89debacked Yes | 60c | 30,994$18,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,358.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 61c | 28,012$16,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,020.36 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7158…5439backed No | 38c | 26,601$10,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,176.45 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -4.5wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 74c | 26,581$19,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,988.92 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f23…90dbbacked Yes | 64c | 25,434$16,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,084.27 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6087…900cbacked No | 0c | 25,164$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.01 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked Yes | 59c | 24,327$14,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,872.22 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa092…11e3backed Yes | 60c | 24,292$14,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,628.09 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…1540backed Yes | 61c | 23,829$14,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,177.18 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +8.8wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2120…2647backed No | 38c | 23,380$8,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,971.35 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f02…a51cbacked No | 1c | 22,929$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.03 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccef…02dbbacked Yes | 61c | 22,733$13,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,809.25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10e4…b019backed Yes | 61c | 22,159$13,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,631.02 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +7.8wins | +0.39per pick | 46cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 63c | 22,048$13,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,163.95 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 37c | 22,000$8,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,073.6 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be9…1442backed No | 2c | 21,971$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.42 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbed…804ebacked Yes | 66c | 21,009$13,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,169.06 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ed…b0f4backed Yes | 62c | 20,990$13,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,891.38 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 62c | 20,787$12,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,958.39 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e89…5593backed Yes | 59c | 20,237$11,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,276.55 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed No | 35c | 19,806$6,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,859.29 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc78…7b4cbacked No | 41c | 19,258$7,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,931.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x943c…1d17backed Yes | 66c | 18,937$12,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,360.53 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa91e…09e0backed Yes | 53c | 18,375$9,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,655.88 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d8a…f2d9backed Yes | 47c | 18,054$8,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,546.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 36cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e48…95c7backed Yes | 66c | 17,800$11,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,071.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 33c | 17,800$5,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,889.98 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 57c | 17,699$10,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,529.21 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 59c | 17,653$10,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,263.17 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b49…1f54backed No | 32c | 17,625$5,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,722.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44d9…4c1abacked No | 39c | 17,404$6,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,834.71 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed No | 15c | 16,603$2,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,476.18 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +10.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 34c | 16,450$5,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,624.23 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 46c | 16,402$7,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,466.49 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e4…70b0backed No | 32c | 15,896$5,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,085.14 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b2…a321backed No | 43c | 15,418$6,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,593.73 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…22e1backed Yes | 60c | 15,333$9,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,101.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc76…d2babacked No | 31c | 15,070$4,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,632.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf39…3101backed Yes | 66c | 15,010$9,907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,103.3 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 31c | 15,000$4,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,700 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 75c | 14,983$11,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,756.21 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 55c | 14,457$7,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,511.75 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6abe…d6a5backed Yes | 67c | 14,358$9,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,779.42 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 61c | 13,684$8,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,379.31 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7814…8d4ebacked Yes | 65c | 13,554$8,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,776.92 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 57cpaid | -56%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb93e…b8fdbacked Yes | 69c | 13,026$8,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,028.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 56c | 13,005$7,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,742.99 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c8…b9e6backed Yes | 69c | 13,000$9,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,980 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5925…b194backed Yes | 58c | 12,899$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,398.83 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb866…977fbacked Yes | 55c | 12,837$7,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,755.43 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 77c | 12,542$9,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,934.21 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…b457backed No | 53c | 12,486$6,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,570.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 55cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…445cbacked Yes | 56c | 12,468$6,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,492.3 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…ede4backed No | 43c | 12,370$5,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,376.72 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd57d…80d0backed Yes | 61c | 12,304$7,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,798.82 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.27per pick | 20cpaid | +273.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 0c | 12,170$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51a8…bfaebacked Yes | 67c | 12,098$8,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,950.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +67%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…2031backed No | 31c | 12,094$3,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,800.38 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +7.3wins | +0.27per pick | 32cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3b91…e572backed Yes | 58c | 12,000$7,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,986.12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69ae…98c7backed No | 49c | 11,786$5,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,771.44 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.8wins | -0.44per pick | 53cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes | 61c | 11,582$7,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,514.67 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 63c | 11,576$7,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,254.23 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 43c | 11,294$4,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,854.02 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e9…825dbacked No | 37c | 11,287$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,199.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d2…2c95backed No | 9c | 11,274$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc05a…ca86backed No | 13c | 11,224$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…9af7backed Yes | 68c | 11,000$7,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,542.56 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…f8f9backed No | 54c | 11,000$5,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,940 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…2afabacked Yes | 55c | 10,622$5,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,819.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…6ca1backed Yes | 60c | 10,602$6,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,261.37 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?this page
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.