Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07d45de444dbe0595c068a9eade49ace2bd381e30d6a45022d801ec10e7d0294
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,314,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,314,218 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,230 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec1f…d325backed Yes | 3c | 626,175$17,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,063.73 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 11c | 504,573$57,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57,007.76 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 16c | 430,219$66,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66,845.28 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Yes | 5c | 399,999$18,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,399.95 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…cde1backed Yes | 13c | 198,644$26,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,018.67 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 4c | 142,204$5,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,886.66 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 0c | 130,724$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.47 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad14…bf69backed No | 79c | 126,968$99,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,015.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 2c | 119,057$1,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,826.26 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 19c | 107,876$20,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,531.17 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 2c | 102,870$2,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,175.82 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a2…b04dbacked Yes | 17c | 95,618$16,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,140.55 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +149.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b8…7271backed Yes | 4c | 95,578$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 13c | 91,897$12,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,328.32 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaa…c521backed Yes | 33c | 90,003$29,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,663.93 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +269.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…83f8backed Yes | 12c | 90,000$10,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,800 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes | 7c | 86,391$6,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,140.69 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…c16abacked Yes | 4c | 84,806$3,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,283.34 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf15…2aa9backed Yes | 7c | 81,587$5,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,836.15 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ba…5933backed Yes | 11c | 79,999$8,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,799.89 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 20c | 71,086$14,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,458.81 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked Yes | 23c | 68,366$15,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,725.01 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…4991backed Yes | 20c | 61,824$12,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,620.57 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c79…1d00backed Yes | 1c | 60,108$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.06 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 13c | 54,094$6,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,972.82 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0277…fe34backed Yes | 6c | 52,505$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 7c | 47,088$3,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,448.8 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 8c | 46,509$3,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,784.16 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x436f…2c7fbacked No | 72c | 44,792$32,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,607.43 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 7c | 42,568$2,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,813.51 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d56…4950backed Yes | 31c | 42,259$13,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,206.85 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.24per pick | 32cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 6c | 40,783$2,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,596.21 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffe5…7f3dbacked Yes | 1c | 40,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3199…fdf3backed Yes | 6c | 39,228$2,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,173.46 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +120.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1479…bf8fbacked Yes | 1c | 38,783$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 23cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 6c | 38,633$2,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,207.14 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f4…bf4fbacked Yes | 7c | 37,950$2,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,774.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed No | 79c | 37,053$29,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,835.69 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…84febacked Yes | 4c | 36,245$1,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,431.31 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd737…be95backed Yes | 14c | 35,515$5,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,092 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 18cpaid | +260.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 13c | 35,267$4,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,726.72 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45fb…aad0backed Yes | 4c | 35,077$1,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,378.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +116.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 3c | 32,162$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.71 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe4…8970backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a9…fc3fbacked Yes | 0c | 29,500$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 12c | 28,798$3,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,320 | 62 | 3.2%2 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 10c | 28,664$2,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,970.72 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5e…39d5backed Yes | 11c | 28,645$3,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,069.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ad…fd81backed Yes | 12c | 27,811$3,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,414.19 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 74c | 27,775$20,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,243.72 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3d…2ed2backed Yes | 3c | 25,782$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa71…9f3dbacked Yes | 2c | 25,329$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefb3…02bfbacked Yes | 3c | 24,851$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 4c | 24,706$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.77 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Yes | 21c | 23,719$5,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,071.34 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…1dc2backed No | 79c | 23,268$18,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,850.16 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd423…d8b1backed Yes | 4c | 22,500$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed Yes | 9c | 22,222$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.96 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4128…dc3cbacked Yes | 11c | 22,041$2,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,327.84 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…e9a1backed Yes | 6c | 21,836$1,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,207.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed Yes | 21c | 20,255$4,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,253.58 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x998e…2ac3backed No | 75c | 20,023$15,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,916.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd64e…5516backed Yes | 10c | 20,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 1c | 20,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5e…7315backed Yes | 23c | 20,000$4,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,649.98 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed Yes | 5c | 18,905$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.25 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87d2…efb2backed No | 78c | 18,644$14,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,009.59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f02…a51cbacked Yes | 2c | 18,402$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.48 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 17,787$3,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,438.41 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…59c0backed Yes | 16c | 17,773$2,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,922.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 30cpaid | +70%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed Yes | 1c | 17,743$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.66 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…7ee7backed Yes | 6c | 17,291$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 11c | 17,156$1,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,906.87 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fe…f135backed No | 68c | 16,968$11,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,388.98 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 16,744$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.98 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5845…7903backed Yes | 14c | 16,515$2,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,249.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebad…00babacked Yes | 2c | 16,357$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.78 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad7…2e0dbacked Yes | 2c | 16,176$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 17c | 16,105$2,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,753.23 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 12c | 15,826$1,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,954.07 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9386…fdfebacked No | 77c | 15,000$11,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,407.69 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…eeaabacked Yes | 21c | 14,750$3,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,161.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…38eabacked Yes | 7c | 14,500$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8a…4521backed Yes | 7c | 14,468$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.99 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddf4…2680backed Yes | 7c | 14,290$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes | 15c | 14,211$2,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,131.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 13,972$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 12c | 12,919$1,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,565.89 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes | 7c | 12,833$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +64%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed No | 79c | 12,498$9,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,624.51 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd9…4fdebacked Yes | 8c | 12,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f79…a20dbacked Yes | 10c | 11,998$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd708…b9d2backed Yes | 10c | 11,684$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,168.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 8c | 11,411$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.88 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 23c | 11,050$2,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,489.88 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked Yes | 13c | 10,983$1,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,416 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6da8…7e40backed Yes | 11c | 10,945$1,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,204 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +1,086.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd75c…6fccbacked Yes | 1c | 10,936$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eac…140abacked Yes | 1c | 10,907$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.35 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?this page
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.