Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x184f4a327edc0cd0af1f409980f6cc8d227fa96855625ce1ae9dad10e80057a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,493,959
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,230,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,493,959 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 539 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 0c | 378,929$1,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,477.15 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…3ecebacked Yes | 1c | 127,128$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb085…ed58backed Yes | 7c | 118,009$8,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,545.94 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 1c | 117,174$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.89 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524e…fe92backed Yes | 2c | 62,294$1,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,317.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 2c | 51,526$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.51 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd133…972cbacked Yes | 4c | 49,650$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…bf50backed Yes | 12c | 47,307$5,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,442.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d27…676ebacked Yes | 1c | 43,762$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b8…7271backed Yes | 4c | 38,023$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 3c | 33,305$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.99 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d81…5c1ebacked Yes | 1c | 32,276$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…281ebacked Yes | 9c | 29,170$2,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,522 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 4c | 28,169$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.46 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 3c | 28,002$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.69 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43a6…b825backed Yes | 3c | 27,721$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab1…e0fabacked Yes | 0c | 27,243$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x459b…3547backed Yes | 0c | 27,173$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffe5…7f3dbacked Yes | 3c | 26,348$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.43 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 25,868$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.69 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f45…1b75backed Yes | 1c | 22,886$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…ea49backed Yes | 1c | 20,062$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 18,656$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.17 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080f…077abacked Yes | 3c | 18,534$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cca…a979backed Yes | 2c | 18,048$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eac…140abacked Yes | 2c | 16,331$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.55 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 14,478$1,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,715.88 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c69…f2d9backed Yes | 2c | 14,401$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.59 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e0…6c06backed Yes | 1c | 13,471$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed Yes | 2c | 13,436$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.2 | 130 | 22.3%29 W · 101 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 0c | 13,000$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…67e3backed Yes | 3c | 12,700$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.8 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…ed6dbacked Yes | 0c | 12,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 1cpaid | +2,534.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2881…2091backed Yes | 9c | 12,393$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb36b…7804backed Yes | 0c | 11,928$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2add…3a7bbacked Yes | 0c | 11,226$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9848…a531backed Yes | 0c | 11,190$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Yes | 1c | 11,152$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.48 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb099…aae2backed Yes | 2c | 11,006$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.69 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d5…84d9backed Yes | 2c | 10,777$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Yes | 11c | 10,743$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2479…fb6fbacked Yes | 2c | 10,434$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.2 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,332$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc7…efc3backed Yes | 1c | 10,182$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28c3…da06backed Yes | 7c | 10,100$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 4c | 10,054$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.78 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked Yes | 3c | 10,012$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.87 | 94 | 10.6%10 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c3…3f7fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Yes | 5c | 10,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9718…20eebacked Yes | 1c | 9,989$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57f4…6347backed Yes | 2c | 9,807$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x680c…4173backed Yes | 10c | 9,622$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a58…33f5backed Yes | 6c | 9,100$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…1d38backed Yes | 1c | 8,994$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3217…6895backed Yes | 22c | 8,975$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b74…778cbacked Yes | 5c | 8,503$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 12cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c22…04f5backed Yes | 6c | 8,484$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…fbd7backed Yes | 1c | 8,407$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf481…27b9backed Yes | 1c | 8,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 8,066$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.93 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 5c | 7,803$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.97 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc65…c01bbacked Yes | 0c | 7,475$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…d47ebacked Yes | 1c | 7,333$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41f…dce3backed Yes | 1c | 7,001$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…a65dbacked Yes | 2c | 6,938$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38de…1b9dbacked Yes | 12c | 6,703$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +308.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94dd…5c84backed Yes | 9c | 6,583$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 6c | 6,550$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.28 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,548$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x835a…ddabbacked Yes | 6c | 6,513$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…2986backed Yes | 1c | 6,487$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…1867backed Yes | 3c | 6,300$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.68 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 1c | 6,281$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.52per pick | 28cpaid | +386.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2384…0cecbacked Yes | 2c | 6,214$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3644…91bdbacked Yes | 3c | 6,192$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2884…1a6abacked Yes | 2c | 6,043$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed No | 80c | 6,040$4,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.78 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…5b05backed Yes | 2c | 6,025$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.15 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x576f…f670backed Yes | 3c | 6,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…d4dabacked Yes | 1c | 5,947$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 5c | 5,916$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.49 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2822…3f0cbacked Yes | 4c | 5,743$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.37 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…af26backed Yes | 4c | 5,672$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bda…6bcbbacked Yes | 9c | 5,669$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a2…b04dbacked Yes | 8c | 5,498$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.29 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +149.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…4254backed Yes | 2c | 5,449$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3b…8dbfbacked Yes | 2c | 5,280$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe952…a415backed Yes | 1c | 5,270$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4e71backed Yes | 4c | 5,263$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb7…5923backed Yes | 7c | 5,184$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.23 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +204.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed6…b0b3backed Yes | 9c | 5,147$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…c2bfbacked Yes | 2c | 5,011$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8013…b482backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -74%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd57d…80d0backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.27per pick | 20cpaid | +273.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 7c | 4,876$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.79 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…e003backed Yes | 3c | 4,488$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32a9…fc3fbacked Yes | 0c | 4,415$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0b…dd71backed Yes | 11c | 4,374$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccd2…4d2fbacked Yes | 7c | 4,286$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 2c | 4,249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?this page
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.