TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2ed6…b0b3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
86
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Champions League, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 56 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT4040%16 W · 24 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-22.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 40 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$470Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+525%+$2,469.6
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$255.48
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$127.9
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advancebacked Cabo Verde · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advancebacked Brazil · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+79.6%+$119.44
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 6.5 Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$16.67
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$74
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$133.99
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$213Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$213.24
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$256Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$177.75
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$33.33
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$17.57
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+25%+$12.5
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$38
Showing 25 of 40 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT1136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Knicks (-7.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Pelicans vs. Timberwolvesbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.56
Spread: Clippers (-6.5)backed Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.06
Spread: Spurs (-11.5)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$41.89
Spread: Lakers (-16.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$49.44
Spread: Trail Blazers (-16.5)backed Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.75
Spread: Rockets (-14.5)backed Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$46.62
Bulls vs. Mavericks: O/U 249.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.5
Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.45
Magic vs. Celticsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.94
Timberwolves vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$8.19
All 11 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT70%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+47.2%+$51.3
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$27.3
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 23, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sentient FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$269Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$269.45
Will Solstice launch a token by December 31 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.45
All 2 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Brøndby IF vs. FC København: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$44
SC Heerenveen vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$154
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hurricanes vs. Bruinsbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Rangers vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.75
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$120
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$962Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+61.1%+$588
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$34
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$244Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+47.4%+$115.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pisa SC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+34.3%+$47.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
CA Mineiro vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$203Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$67.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.55
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Oct 19, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Utah vs. BYUbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$13.4
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.