La Liga · resolved market
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3f725f7fd0bfb563b8c678dd4cc7d6c282a1fa3bcd9df9f9e2279301dae974b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b3f…5a9fbacked Over | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 20c | 1,138$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.61 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 23c | 813.4$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.75 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 21c | 708.27$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Over | 68c | 395.8$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.33 | 43 | 76.7%33 W · 10 L | +9.8wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa90b…5ca7backed Over | 76c | 390$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Under | 21c | 357.14$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 32c | 294$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.08 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | -11.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 21c | 240.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 326 | 45.4%148 W · 178 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Under | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 34c | 229.39$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.13 | 335 | 44.2%148 W · 187 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 79c | 221.15$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 571 | 39.2%224 W · 347 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 424 | 58%246 W · 178 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…643cbacked Over | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed6…b0b3backed Over | 79c | 130$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcb…f3afbacked Over | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff1…c554backed Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 136 | 68.4%93 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 70 | 72.9%51 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 454 | 50%227 W · 227 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 79c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 402 | 39.1%157 W · 245 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 65c | 71.4$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 839 | 39.8%334 W · 505 L | -21.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 21c | 54.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…5c31backed Over | 80c | 50.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 132 | 51.5%68 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…88fdbacked Over | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ab…83f5backed Over | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 48 | 77.1%37 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Over | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 214 | 57.5%123 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 75c | 25.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 490 | 57.1%280 W · 210 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…5aebbacked Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…0bb6backed Over | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb4…68c3backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd507…f719backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 80cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c0…6f8cbacked Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5this page
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 0.5Over won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5Under won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5Under won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 4.5Under won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.