La Liga · resolved market
Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64457ef1debf4682bc0f68776d87847f85131168d0df4697b2203f752cc8f2a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rayo Vallecano de Madridof Rayo Vallecano de Madrid, Villarreal CF
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Villarreal CF | 80c | 5,381$4,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,296.33 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 23c | 2,334$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,801.4 | 999 | 33.4%334 W · 665 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 22c | 2,135$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,663.57 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Villarreal CF | 77c | 1,654$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.8 | 222 | 46.8%104 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 21c | 1,269$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.98 | 571 | 39.2%224 W · 347 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 49c | 1,076$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.88 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 19c | 1,009$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.68 | 1,419 | 45.6%647 W · 772 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Villarreal CF | 77c | 660$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.2 | 482 | 51.2%247 W · 235 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 17c | 504.06$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.28 | 402 | 39.1%157 W · 245 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Villarreal CF | 25c | 191.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 413 | 23.2%96 W · 317 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 17c | 186$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.32 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Villarreal CF | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Villarreal CF | 67c | 73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | -11.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 37c | 67.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…3561backed Villarreal CF | 76c | 52.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6419…0f53backed Villarreal CF | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Villarreal CF | 64c | 36.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6026…3f98backed Villarreal CF | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)this page
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 0.5Over won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5Under won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5Under won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 4.5Under won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.