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La Liga · resolved market

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,719
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,997

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,719 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in La Liga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0346…52a5backed Over25c4,316$1,078 inLost-$1,077.7567839.2%266 W · 412 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under74c3,752$2,774 inWon+$978.594,85647%2,282 W · 2,574 L-17.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ee…78ffbacked Under79c3,158$2,500 inWon+$658.75450%2 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-36.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over20c1,442$281 inLost-$281.443,57142.6%1,522 W · 2,049 L+26.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over31c1,000$310 inLost-$31010820.4%22 W · 86 L-9.6wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Over33c303.03$100 inLost-$10015446.1%71 W · 83 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Over19c300$57 inLost-$5711820.3%24 W · 94 L-11.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf474…2775backed Under68c235.38$160 inWon+$75.322085%17 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.17per pick68cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over22c216.3$47 inLost-$46.7516863.1%106 W · 62 L+32.6wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+73.4%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under65c215.34$141 inWon+$74.481,29351.5%666 W · 627 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e46…5737backed Under66c200$132 inWon+$686657.6%38 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over26c175.27$46 inLost-$46.0948338.3%185 W · 298 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under68c165$112 inWon+$53.1393345.3%423 W · 510 L-30.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Over33c162.07$54 inLost-$53.65119.6%10 W · 41 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Under68c154.48$105 inWon+$49.5313347.4%63 W · 70 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Over32c149.5$48 inLost-$47.847346.6%34 W · 39 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02f7…dd8fbacked Over34c149.5$51 inLost-$50.832133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-43.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Under67c135.75$92 inWon+$44.1722246.8%104 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39a5…5abfbacked Under80c125$100 inWon+$251457.1%8 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Over33c123.81$41 inLost-$40.862857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+18.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over27c110.04$29 inLost-$29.3162154.4%338 W · 283 L+28.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x02bc…1fd2backed Under67c99.99$67 inWon+$3315644.9%70 W · 86 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over23c97.16$22 inLost-$22.3518162.4%113 W · 68 L+32.7wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+72.5%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xc311…c154backed Under65c76.92$50 inWon+$26.923461.8%21 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8c…79bdbacked Under68c73.53$50 inWon+$23.538750.6%44 W · 43 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over15c71$11 inLost-$1189139.8%355 W · 536 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9637…a576backed Over36c69.44$25 inLost-$2549228.9%142 W · 350 L-0.6wins0.00per pick29cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc263…1e83backed Under75c67.2$50 inWon+$17.096163.9%39 W · 22 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+16%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1bda…edd3backed Over35c64.99$23 inLost-$22.75825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-51.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under76c58.56$45 inWon+$13.951,18732.4%385 W · 802 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over38c52.86$20 inLost-$20.261,67443.9%735 W · 939 L-21.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6c3…a6e8backed Under57c50$29 inWon+$21.53754.1%20 W · 17 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+30.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff2a…bfefbacked Under63c47.94$30 inWon+$17.943842.1%16 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-21.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0eb9…bb3cbacked Over33c45.45$15 inLost-$151250%6 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+71.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x193b…9c37backed Over34c44.12$15 inLost-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd243…56e5backed Over46c35.67$16 inLost-$16.413354.5%18 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde25…c0a5backed Under68c32.87$22 inWon+$10.535052%26 W · 24 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Under75c32.07$24 inWon+$7.919865.2%129 W · 69 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under76c31.52$24 inWon+$7.6122760.4%137 W · 90 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Under79c22.22$18 inWon+$4.6733161.3%203 W · 128 L+12.1wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under65c17.14$11 inWon+$61,65851.7%858 W · 800 L-6.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.