La Liga · resolved market
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x219cad6cb7c6f79ecab4a4f84a917282c16639406f825bb81dbd259ac244fb4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,886
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,886 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 6,455$2,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,702.11 | 4,753 | 47.1%2,238 W · 2,515 L | -21.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 56c | 4,162$2,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,342.07 | 578 | 39.3%227 W · 351 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 39c | 2,567$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,566.61 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d49…7cc0backed Over | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Over | 56c | 1,559$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 56c | 1,429$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 177 | 31.1%55 W · 122 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 46c | 1,269$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.77 | 693 | 50.2%348 W · 345 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…c02abacked Under | 18c | 1,045$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.9 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +348.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Under | 45c | 1,015$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.65 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +9.8wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 44c | 806.43$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.6 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Over | 56c | 625$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 154 | 46.1%71 W · 83 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 55c | 594.72$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.1 | 222 | 46.8%104 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 57c | 564.26$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.35 | 1,662 | 43.7%727 W · 935 L | -23.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 483.35$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.48 | 3,461 | 43%1,489 W · 1,972 L | +31.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92f…1a35backed Over | 49c | 377.55$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1f…eb43backed Over | 48c | 306.25$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | -11.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 271.35$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.96 | 653 | 56.5%369 W · 284 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 61c | 250$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.5 | 610 | 32.3%197 W · 413 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x196b…4151backed Over | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 44c | 242.48$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.79 | 2,347 | 48.5%1,138 W · 1,209 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…604abacked Under | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 44c | 219.98$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.19 | 482 | 51.2%247 W · 235 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 63c | 210.14$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.52 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…5abfbacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 44c | 184.58$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.36 | 1,577 | 51.4%811 W · 766 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e68…16c7backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…1b9cbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 459 | 49.7%228 W · 231 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7c65backed Under | 45c | 132$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 86 | 72.1%62 W · 24 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 78c | 127.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 266 | 45.5%121 W · 145 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…dfb9backed Over | 56c | 126$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.95 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba78…273ebacked Over | 56c | 112$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa52…eababacked Over | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…44dcbacked Over | 56c | 102.35$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbb…48f2backed Over | 47c | 94.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 93.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.85 | 1,186 | 51.7%613 W · 573 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26f2…1761backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 61c | 82.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb424…3b71backed Over | 62c | 75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 49c | 75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 425 | 58.4%248 W · 177 L | +31.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef8a…93ddbacked Over | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3d…3681backed Over | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 77cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Over | 41c | 60.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 62c | 60.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 412 | 39.1%161 W · 251 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 38c | 55.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 144 | 41%59 W · 85 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc1…b855backed Under | 46c | 54.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…0fddbacked Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 60c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 176 | 63.1%111 W · 65 L | +32.7wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 44c | 44.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 202 | 53.5%108 W · 94 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 58c | 43.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 492 | 28.9%142 W · 350 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 45c | 42.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 227 | 60.4%137 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 176 | 51.7%91 W · 85 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e3…6761backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…00cbbacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 44c | 26.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 205 | 41.5%85 W · 120 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 56c | 22.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Under | 55c | 20.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Over | 52c | 19.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5this page
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 0.5Over won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5Under won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 4.5Under won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.