Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after November 2024 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4a9b98237a29e778ac5717e3d29220bb2f0c0370e8e3436d4a277853556355f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,393,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,723,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,393,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,027 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47bc…abd2backed Yes | 11c | 589,422$67,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67,060.7 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…25a8backed Yes | 1c | 263,013$2,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,837.26 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7378…12dcbacked Yes | 2c | 262,791$4,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,729.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42af…ee14backed Yes | 45c | 236,698$105,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105,834.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9847…a3d5backed Yes | 5c | 200,677$9,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,993.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21e…d3a8backed Yes | 37c | 185,898$69,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69,364.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked Yes | 7c | 150,000$10,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,707.36 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 2c | 147,077$3,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,540.52 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69b…4385backed Yes | 2c | 117,747$2,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4a…ac42backed Yes | 51c | 116,200$59,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59,113.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0914…9c93backed Yes | 2c | 116,013$2,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,826.24 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf0…3cc0backed Yes | 9c | 110,551$9,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,674.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 1c | 108,414$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.92 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…df65backed Yes | 22c | 103,575$22,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,516.11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7a…06e4backed Yes | 10c | 100,615$9,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,728.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…257dbacked Yes | 2c | 100,317$2,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,035.86 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84b…5055backed No | 56c | 93,573$52,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,704.69 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf246…dc87backed Yes | 1c | 85,933$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.28 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd968…d5ecbacked Yes | 1c | 81,795$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7c…74c2backed Yes | 4c | 79,852$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…372abacked No | 58c | 75,395$43,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,527.75 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1da…8f6abacked Yes | 35c | 71,318$24,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,973.52 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…e90dbacked Yes | 32c | 68,013$21,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,499.7 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ca…84acbacked Yes | 1c | 65,000$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 1c | 63,088$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.48 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4b…3725backed Yes | 6c | 60,869$3,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,653.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes | 3c | 60,584$2,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,027.23 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 1c | 60,279$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.81 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8352…d51abacked Yes | 49c | 43,401$21,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,224.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…d1d1backed No | 64c | 42,877$27,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,455.91 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0af…1111backed Yes | 2c | 41,679$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1c…33c1backed Yes | 13c | 40,420$5,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,254.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6596…4e48backed Yes | 6c | 39,970$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,399.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 39,192$1,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,203.73 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbb…dc2bbacked Yes | 1c | 38,334$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.77 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…27babacked Yes | 6c | 36,187$2,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,168.39 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f1…a619backed Yes | 12c | 33,695$3,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,951.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 45c | 31,005$13,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,985.72 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0397…000dbacked Yes | 36c | 30,166$10,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,951.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb01…e156backed Yes | 5c | 29,881$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f2…3477backed Yes | 5c | 29,844$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,492.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…07afbacked Yes | 2c | 27,092$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…56f1backed Yes | 4c | 27,000$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.32 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebf…4808backed Yes | 5c | 26,852$1,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,342.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f66…aaddbacked Yes | 5c | 26,783$1,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,339.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf84…acc7backed Yes | 5c | 26,712$1,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,335.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2f…84e9backed Yes | 9c | 26,427$2,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,363.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80aa…74d5backed Yes | 5c | 26,386$1,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe63…49d0backed Yes | 5c | 26,007$1,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,328.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b0…d3f5backed Yes | 7c | 25,795$1,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,689.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 1c | 25,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf645…0d16backed Yes | 8c | 24,700$2,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,023 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x632d…8213backed Yes | 5c | 23,554$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e56…4199backed No | 76c | 21,376$16,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,173.29 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3d…aaecbacked Yes | 1c | 20,000$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -71%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f45…56ddbacked Yes | 5c | 19,984$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…bf2abacked Yes | 4c | 19,592$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed Yes | 1c | 19,353$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfc…acb7backed Yes | 46c | 19,085$8,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,842.93 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a01…aa69backed Yes | 9c | 19,052$1,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,662.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Yes | 37c | 18,409$6,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,782.37 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 65c | 17,685$11,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,208.16 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…d1adbacked Yes | 12c | 17,485$2,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,137.67 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7a…b7ffbacked Yes | 3c | 17,428$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 41c | 17,320$7,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,092.55 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac39…9ef9backed Yes | 1c | 17,261$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5805…c2b8backed Yes | 5c | 16,831$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd583…b9e3backed Yes | 3c | 16,293$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 38c | 15,332$5,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,867.66 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6178…f9a9backed Yes | 34c | 14,875$5,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,039.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…a0f5backed Yes | 6c | 14,477$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbea…bc32backed Yes | 3c | 14,282$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd863…a129backed Yes | 2c | 14,275$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 2c | 13,511$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.12 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31c…c1c3backed Yes | 33c | 13,230$4,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,307.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f2…44c5backed Yes | 1c | 13,125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…2884backed Yes | 4c | 13,111$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb50d…3ed5backed Yes | 5c | 13,050$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb381…a2f1backed Yes | 3c | 13,023$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a68…1767backed Yes | 29c | 13,000$3,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,790 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a4…e3dcbacked Yes | 1c | 12,505$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 8c | 12,500$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7daa…b3bebacked Yes | 2c | 12,484$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.87 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…7328backed Yes | 34c | 12,316$4,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,146.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc1…6a67backed Yes | 39c | 12,031$4,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,655.15 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x310d…fdfcbacked Yes | 39c | 12,000$4,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,619.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…a2cdbacked Yes | 4c | 11,950$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.2 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f8…83cbbacked Yes | 2c | 11,939$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5c…5d56backed Yes | 17c | 11,688$1,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,956.89 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeae…f987backed Yes | 6c | 11,336$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…6d5cbacked Yes | 12c | 11,325$1,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,378.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 10c | 11,243$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.56 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 6c | 11,182$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.52 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50f3…2475backed Yes | 1c | 11,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x961f…3daabacked Yes | 2c | 11,068$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa334…af3cbacked Yes | 1c | 11,000$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes | 29c | 10,845$3,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,102.38 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x766f…3115backed Yes | 1c | 10,840$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc61b…9ac5backed Yes | 2c | 10,725$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…cdfcbacked Yes | 9c | 10,598$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after November 2024 meeting?this page
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?Yes won
- Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after November 2024 meeting?No won
- Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after November 2024 meeting?No won
- No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting?No won
- Will the FED change rates to another level after Nov meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.