TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will the FED change rates to another level after Nov meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,150,630
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,367,101

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,150,630 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x684b…0601backed Yes0c3,127,060$4,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,628.1119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-83.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47bc…abd2backed Yes0c1,847,678$3,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,695.36922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-51.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes0c1,187,292$1,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,746.7510420.2%21 W · 83 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes0c599,497$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.5244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-92.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5666…3ba1backed Yes0c400,012$1,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,217.320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c367,697$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.2523.8%2 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked Yes0c297,573$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.81170%0 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb82…80b6backed Yes0c196,329$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe03a…aedbbacked Yes0c125,413$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.83160%0 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes0c103,590$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.182240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdba6…0218backed Yes0c101,743$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.7450%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes0c100,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf012…a2cdbacked Yes0c100,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-86%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c97,301$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.6525.8%3 W · 49 L+0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-61.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b0…194dbacked Yes0c71,000$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe63…49d0backed Yes0c64,237$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.7150%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6e78…cc2bbacked Yes0c54,499$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6356…1885backed Yes0c51,000$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.75100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed Yes0c47,422$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.842619.2%5 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-60.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1754…f6c2backed Yes0c45,288$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0260…b0a4backed Yes0c42,583$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.7540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86bf…cd88backed Yes0c40,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe16…cd08backed Yes0c38,850$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66e6…4e5bbacked Yes0c37,995$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x066e…9d1abacked Yes0c36,480$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5805…c2b8backed Yes0c34,676$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100120%0 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes0c24,559$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.122222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-64.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2796…4562backed Yes0c23,900$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.750%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5110…964fbacked Yes0c23,050$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28d4…8033backed Yes0c22,550$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55db…7ce1backed Yes0c22,500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-80.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd12…aaafbacked Yes0c22,500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88dc…a330backed Yes0c22,100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7037…7feabacked Yes0c22,000$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9f3…4c9cbacked Yes0c21,500$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…42e3backed Yes0c20,640$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf79c…5841backed Yes0c20,500$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb68…e183backed Yes0c20,500$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd521…0669backed Yes0c20,290$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bf8…b754backed Yes0c20,007$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…c0a4backed Yes0c20,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc83…dcb0backed Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408924.7%22 W · 67 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-34.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b4c…493ebacked Yes0c19,900$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdff1…6c6bbacked Yes1c19,430$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201020%2 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c97…8310backed Yes0c18,576$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x628a…0e07backed Yes0c17,432$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a51…673ebacked Yes1c17,369$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-76.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9934…4288backed Yes0c16,250$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6560%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3c0…2b97backed Yes0c16,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5642…faa3backed Yes0c15,791$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb052…ff06backed Yes0c12,600$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.91414.3%2 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick7cpaid-25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe53…c2ebbacked Yes0c12,599$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee25…11e0backed Yes0c12,500$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.51010%1 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick2cpaid+25%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0b6…7c80backed Yes0c12,200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca61…5b36backed Yes0c11,700$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1260…34f3backed Yes0c11,505$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd35e…6807backed Yes0c10,750$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc76…7442backed Yes0c10,700$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59cb…d9e8backed Yes0c10,600$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dcf…6526backed Yes0c10,584$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6bb…9dbebacked Yes0c10,550$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x897a…aaf6backed Yes0c10,500$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4573…4da1backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ad5…657cbacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9595…1b16backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e41…cf4dbacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8183…51c6backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x465f…5c72backed Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…7aa3backed Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeeab…4242backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb84a…e71fbacked Yes0c9,694$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-58%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ed…ce35backed Yes0c9,656$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.62128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-66.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9a…b2c6backed Yes0c9,000$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0450…eff8backed Yes0c8,733$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdda0…5811backed Yes0c8,333$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2560%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeeac…0c58backed Yes0c8,333$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6824…b2a2backed Yes0c8,268$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe058…3418backed Yes0c7,733$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c7,665$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.01630%0 W · 63 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f3e…5bc9backed Yes0c7,485$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.97333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-49.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90a4…9777backed Yes0c7,174$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…38b2backed Yes0c7,021$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe640…c151backed Yes0c7,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a24…22d0backed Yes0c6,700$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3d6…2a65backed Yes0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76c9…db05backed Yes0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bf0…8fcabacked Yes0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16e7…c7c5backed Yes0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8540…5f39backed Yes0c6,543$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf31e…eec3backed Yes0c6,500$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe98e…91d7backed Yes0c6,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa0c…4d69backed Yes0c6,500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc3d…a65abacked Yes0c6,303$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59e0…eda2backed Yes0c6,147$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52aa…1a5cbacked Yes0c6,133$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5b5…01b8backed Yes0c6,050$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc29e…8574backed Yes0c6,010$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23aa…d48fbacked Yes0c6,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a12…06b4backed Yes0c5,985$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.