Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d31558105899ab4025075b92cfb127fae4be0e9644a6895466aa50e2de37e72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,010,507
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,300,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,010,507 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 909 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1a2…372abacked Yes | 78c | 210,245$164,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,065.79 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84b…5055backed Yes | 68c | 171,517$115,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55,742.82 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…2a28backed Yes | 79c | 168,709$132,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,230.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa21e…d3a8backed Yes | 58c | 115,655$67,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,135.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f5…2e8dbacked No | 3c | 102,356$2,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,930.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 15c | 100,000$15,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,000 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…6b20backed Yes | 55c | 45,815$25,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,814.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a21…fb6cbacked No | 20c | 30,564$5,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,998 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9933…2c80backed No | 6c | 30,545$1,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,717 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7119…7132backed Yes | 49c | 21,525$10,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,077.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…8c31backed Yes | 49c | 20,255$9,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,280.51 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7a…06e4backed No | 18c | 20,000$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea24…45cdbacked No | 2c | 20,000$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 77c | 19,000$14,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,290 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e58…205abacked Yes | 56c | 18,568$10,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,129.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe456…ad4fbacked No | 3c | 18,184$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55aa…73f8backed Yes | 51c | 16,707$8,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,207.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf78d…6fb5backed Yes | 80c | 16,492$13,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,335.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf42…1a14backed No | 3c | 16,439$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 51c | 16,295$8,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,024.9 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 50c | 16,041$8,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,000.66 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 47c | 15,009$7,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,941.97 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8474…2511backed Yes | 55c | 15,000$8,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,761.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…668fbacked No | 3c | 14,740$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked No | 16c | 14,245$2,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,279.2 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…d1d1backed Yes | 78c | 14,233$11,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,171.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…27babacked No | 19c | 12,850$2,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,477.3 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf645…0d16backed No | 20c | 12,500$2,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,444.99 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 36c | 12,056$4,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,352.05 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…2b6ebacked No | 4c | 11,596$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f14…3c7abacked Yes | 75c | 10,897$8,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,709.63 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…2418backed Yes | 55c | 10,509$5,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,699.83 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f5…9663backed No | 3c | 10,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa16…5fffbacked Yes | 45c | 10,000$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,500 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 56c | 9,963$5,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,376.2 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…c1cabacked No | 3c | 9,951$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664c…9ec8backed Yes | 50c | 9,235$4,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,578.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 64c | 9,116$5,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,284.91 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc61b…9ac5backed No | 2c | 8,053$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 50c | 7,452$3,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,751 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa39c…08bcbacked Yes | 53c | 7,000$3,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,260 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x333b…33febacked No | 2c | 7,000$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f6…4860backed No | 17c | 6,798$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,138.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae5c…53ddbacked Yes | 45c | 6,563$2,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,629.41 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e56…4199backed Yes | 67c | 6,313$4,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,067.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed No | 2c | 6,115$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.17 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a7…e4c1backed No | 18c | 5,509$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed No | 2c | 5,500$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed No | 9c | 5,367$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.38 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8931…03e8backed No | 2c | 5,321$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x248a…377fbacked No | 8c | 5,200$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd863…a129backed No | 3c | 5,022$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 77c | 5,000$3,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7aa…d0f0backed No | 2c | 5,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9129…68a6backed Yes | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f52…b5e7backed No | 3c | 5,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4acb…717ebacked No | 41c | 4,865$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +152.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71da…49fbbacked No | 9c | 4,855$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4965…176fbacked No | 3c | 4,700$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e9…f89dbacked No | 3c | 4,694$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…0e71backed Yes | 52c | 4,486$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,135.7 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda43…497cbacked No | 5c | 4,233$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…85c1backed No | 2c | 4,200$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd583…b9e3backed No | 2c | 4,020$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0d…12f8backed No | 3c | 4,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac39…9ef9backed No | 2c | 3,798$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf246…dc87backed No | 2c | 3,795$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.62 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc462…5e7abacked No | 38c | 3,715$1,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,411.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a1…0ff3backed No | 3c | 3,704$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9379…d159backed No | 2c | 3,663$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c9…4dc0backed No | 8c | 3,612$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51cb…6314backed Yes | 75c | 3,588$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd69b…4385backed No | 3c | 3,575$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 50c | 3,564$1,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,766.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x188b…6003backed No | 4c | 3,545$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8042…5193backed No | 27c | 3,503$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9287…ef46backed No | 3c | 3,422$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x007c…82fdbacked No | 3c | 3,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3049…7825backed Yes | 78c | 3,315$2,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…6492backed Yes | 76c | 3,308$2,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.39 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe92…d51abacked Yes | 39c | 3,294$1,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,022.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +71%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad00…ebe1backed No | 3c | 3,262$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fec…d98cbacked No | 26c | 3,225$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd222…4ed6backed No | 3c | 3,200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…bf2abacked No | 17c | 3,195$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…741bbacked Yes | 61c | 3,159$1,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,232.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 2c | 3,006$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 2c | 3,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…0420backed Yes | 57c | 3,000$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked Yes | 48c | 2,854$1,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,484.08 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…b942backed Yes | 75c | 2,832$2,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 49c | 2,500$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,265 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 54c | 2,485$1,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,142.93 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…7c93backed No | 20c | 2,481$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbba…1ac3backed Yes | 57c | 2,434$1,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9d…dd7cbacked No | 2c | 2,425$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbf…1eacbacked No | 2c | 2,378$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d6…ab5dbacked No | 4c | 2,314$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…ae4dbacked No | 2c | 2,292$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e5…3013backed Yes | 80c | 2,250$1,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +104%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?this page
- Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after November 2024 meeting?No won
- Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after November 2024 meeting?No won
- Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after November 2024 meeting?No won
- No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting?No won
- Will the FED change rates to another level after Nov meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.