TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,010,507
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,300,061

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,010,507 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 909 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb1a2…372abacked Yes78c210,245$164,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,065.791353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa84b…5055backed Yes68c171,517$115,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,742.821376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e50…2a28backed Yes79c168,709$132,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,230.21258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa21e…d3a8backed Yes58c115,655$67,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,135.85560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51f5…2e8dbacked No3c102,356$2,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,930.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed No15c100,000$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,0002429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52a0…6b20backed Yes55c45,815$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,814.7540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a21…fb6cbacked No20c30,564$5,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,998100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9933…2c80backed No6c30,545$1,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,71730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7119…7132backed Yes49c21,525$10,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,077.19633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf596…8c31backed Yes49c20,255$9,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,280.511145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a7a…06e4backed No18c20,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,60020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea24…45cdbacked No2c20,000$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed Yes77c19,000$14,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,290922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-54.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e58…205abacked Yes56c18,568$10,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,129.23333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe456…ad4fbacked No3c18,184$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55aa…73f8backed Yes51c16,707$8,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,207.12475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+59.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf78d…6fb5backed Yes80c16,492$13,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,335.9333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-58.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf42…1a14backed No3c16,439$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47480%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes51c16,295$8,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,024.92725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-45%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Yes50c16,041$8,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,000.662548%12 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick39cpaid-9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes47c15,009$7,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,941.973548.6%17 W · 18 L+5.3wins+0.15per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8474…2511backed Yes55c15,000$8,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,761.09450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid-7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5145…668fbacked No3c14,740$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c4…bfdebacked No16c14,245$2,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,279.2120%0 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x402a…d1d1backed Yes78c14,233$11,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,171.71040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3fe…27babacked No19c12,850$2,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,477.3224.5%1 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick12cpaid-82.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf645…0d16backed No20c12,500$2,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,444.99130%0 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No36c12,056$4,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,352.0518135.4%64 W · 117 L-16.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-36.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd31c…2b6ebacked No4c11,596$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f14…3c7abacked Yes75c10,897$8,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,709.631560%9 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32d0…2418backed Yes55c10,509$5,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,699.83955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4f5…9663backed No3c10,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa16…5fffbacked Yes45c10,000$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,500728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-43.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes56c9,963$5,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,376.28953.9%48 W · 41 L+8.9wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6548…c1cabacked No3c9,951$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.3930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x664c…9ec8backed Yes50c9,235$4,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,578.32366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+54.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes64c9,116$5,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,284.915127.5%14 W · 37 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-39.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc61b…9ac5backed No2c8,053$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-54.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe533…ab29backed Yes50c7,452$3,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,7511172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.24per pick49cpaid+40.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa39c…08bcbacked Yes53c7,000$3,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,260580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+33%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x333b…33febacked No2c7,000$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35f6…4860backed No17c6,798$1,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,138.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae5c…53ddbacked Yes45c6,563$2,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,629.412152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e56…4199backed Yes67c6,313$4,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,067.86850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05ab…8145backed No2c6,115$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.17128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-88.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a7…e4c1backed No18c5,509$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed No2c5,500$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119523.8%2 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed No9c5,367$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.381163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8931…03e8backed No2c5,321$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x248a…377fbacked No8c5,200$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd863…a129backed No3c5,022$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.6340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eea…281dbacked Yes77c5,000$3,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,165955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7aa…d0f0backed No2c5,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9129…68a6backed Yes55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,250450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f52…b5e7backed No3c5,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4acb…717ebacked No41c4,865$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+152.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71da…49fbbacked No9c4,855$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4965…176fbacked No3c4,700$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28e9…f89dbacked No3c4,694$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.74333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77cf…0e71backed Yes52c4,486$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,135.71338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda43…497cbacked No5c4,233$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdedd…85c1backed No2c4,200$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd583…b9e3backed No2c4,020$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e0d…12f8backed No3c4,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-50%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac39…9ef9backed No2c3,798$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.8740%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf246…dc87backed No2c3,795$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.62128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-83.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc462…5e7abacked No38c3,715$1,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,411.65560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x47a1…0ff3backed No3c3,704$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9379…d159backed No2c3,663$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6c9…4dc0backed No8c3,612$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51cb…6314backed Yes75c3,588$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-33.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd69b…4385backed No3c3,575$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes50c3,564$1,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,766.04742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x188b…6003backed No4c3,545$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.87616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-79.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8042…5193backed No27c3,503$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9287…ef46backed No3c3,422$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x007c…82fdbacked No3c3,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3049…7825backed Yes78c3,315$2,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.07333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-57.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbffe…6492backed Yes76c3,308$2,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.391353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe92…d51abacked Yes39c3,294$1,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,022.31560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+71%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad00…ebe1backed No3c3,262$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fec…d98cbacked No26c3,225$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd222…4ed6backed No3c3,200$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f6…bf2abacked No17c3,195$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.89425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-32.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fd8…741bbacked Yes61c3,159$1,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,232.53475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+40.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No2c3,006$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.138924.7%22 W · 67 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-34.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed No2c3,000$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-54.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x025e…0420backed Yes57c3,000$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,290933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-40.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6902…678cbacked Yes48c2,854$1,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,484.081520%3 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-49.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ca9…b942backed Yes75c2,832$2,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.04475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+28.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes49c2,500$1,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2652516%4 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-64.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd352…4ad6backed Yes54c2,485$1,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.931241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5676…7c93backed No20c2,481$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbba…1ac3backed Yes57c2,434$1,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,058.142100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f9d…dd7cbacked No2c2,425$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bbf…1eacbacked No2c2,378$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83d6…ab5dbacked No4c2,314$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2930…ae4dbacked No2c2,292$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4e5…3013backed Yes80c2,250$1,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+104%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.