TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after November 2024 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,031,955
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,405,759

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,031,955 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 422 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x684b…0601backed Yes0c1,611,117$2,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,873.96119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-83.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes0c738,146$1,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,596.68924.7%22 W · 67 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-34.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c719,998$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,649.99523.8%2 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes0c497,642$1,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,329.3410420.2%21 W · 83 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a4c…8a04backed Yes0c362,340$1,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,390.84224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-93.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47bc…abd2backed Yes0c328,506$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.52922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-51.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e4e…bfb2backed Yes0c292,094$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdea3…2266backed Yes2c251,287$4,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,670.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f9d…1209backed Yes0c249,992$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,092.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde24…25a8backed Yes0c212,500$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425345.9%2 W · 32 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-71.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3116…fc46backed Yes1c183,186$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77d9…a4e5backed Yes1c176,656$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,058.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf374…14d8backed Yes0c168,448$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a9e…fcafbacked Yes0c167,728$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b7c…74c2backed Yes0c160,832$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5f6…bf2abacked Yes1c149,832$2,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,072.97425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-32.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe63…49d0backed Yes0c145,847$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes0c139,999$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.992240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3a…682dbacked Yes0c128,470$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b78…1d46backed Yes0c128,376$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdae6…f68fbacked Yes0c128,359$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc3e…0b00backed Yes0c128,359$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1004…6e6fbacked Yes0c128,359$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bf0…3cc0backed Yes0c125,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b9…f8d8backed Yes0c111,037$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd2c…32a3backed Yes0c110,583$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd84…8b10backed Yes0c107,948$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee1…398abacked Yes0c107,901$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.7333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-53.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10db…9845backed Yes1c103,267$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8018…edb3backed Yes1c103,267$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc440…d1adbacked Yes1c102,525$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.51118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-69.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7560…2c19backed Yes0c101,784$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67b4…b0babacked Yes0c101,784$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf260…6e36backed Yes1c101,764$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf246…dc87backed Yes0c101,056$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.01128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-83.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50f3…2475backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdba6…0218backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd583…b9e3backed Yes0c92,300$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29550%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacc2…65aebacked Yes1c88,532$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48da…0419backed Yes0c87,625$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-56.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d26…46b6backed Yes0c87,561$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.6840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69e9…824fbacked Yes0c86,764$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95f2…1fcdbacked Yes1c82,455$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ef3…cddbbacked Yes1c82,198$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde61…9068backed Yes1c80,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52a2…ad55backed Yes1c76,136$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4f5…1d41backed Yes2c75,627$1,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,624.95119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-72.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9f8…83cbbacked Yes0c65,360$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaafb…a0f5backed Yes1c64,987$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.93520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-69.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeebf…c7b5backed Yes2c60,743$1,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,209.063542.9%15 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf28d…b24bbacked Yes0c59,656$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.9780%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f07…b421backed Yes1c56,970$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.191136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdb6…9452backed Yes0c51,422$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.31200%0 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes0c51,388$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.78244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-92.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd47…fa6bbacked Yes0c50,675$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa630…bf53backed Yes0c50,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bbf…1eacbacked Yes0c49,930$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3694…1d72backed Yes2c49,513$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.581428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick22cpaid-38.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x582b…ed89backed Yes0c46,385$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0017…6e7bbacked Yes0c43,629$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.8920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2249…45f1backed Yes2c43,073$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c43,000$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175525.8%3 W · 49 L+0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-61.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a5e…bc73backed Yes6c42,312$2,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,518.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7aa1…3a2dbacked Yes0c42,044$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.0980%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77a4…4263backed Yes1c41,758$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2890…2657backed Yes0c41,692$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes2c40,630$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.71315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-69.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x69aa…8c1cbacked Yes2c40,322$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe465…bb54backed Yes0c40,000$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.1640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c39,471$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.76630%0 W · 63 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…92e6backed Yes0c36,206$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.82333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-52.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5805…c2b8backed Yes1c35,000$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175120%0 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bdf…032ebacked Yes1c33,068$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1688…b03fbacked Yes0c32,500$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1da…8f6abacked Yes5c32,087$1,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6111020%2 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-49.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x55db…7ce1backed Yes1c30,400$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.67137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-80.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51da…dfb8backed Yes2c30,240$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.76812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick6cpaid-36.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe44…e576backed Yes0c28,577$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.7370%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2320…f17ebacked Yes2c27,591$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.21425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbbc…892bbacked Yes1c26,565$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.2470%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb726…c79fbacked Yes2c25,971$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54ad…67d4backed Yes0c25,270$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bee…2fbdbacked Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4b5…c44abacked Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3dc…c522backed Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bf3…a33dbacked Yes0c24,795$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc368…56f1backed Yes0c24,042$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.570%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbc5…071bbacked Yes1c21,833$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0397…000dbacked Yes2c21,257$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4418…2a10backed Yes0c20,775$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-62.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8656…5bfabacked Yes0c20,496$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83fc…665abacked Yes0c20,237$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8686…2447backed Yes0c20,200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a24…a5ebbacked Yes1c20,022$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0079…17ccbacked Yes1c20,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…c0a4backed Yes0c20,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28f1…a447backed Yes0c19,748$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d79…1b73backed Yes0c18,738$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeada…3dcebacked Yes0c18,644$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b40…73f9backed Yes1c18,381$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.