Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after November 2024 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20e2d5f8c92270e87a3f60672a67c649e781f9c2ab8b30055ce4e2fb48c458dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,031,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,405,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,031,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 422 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x684b…0601backed Yes | 0c | 1,611,117$2,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,873.96 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 0c | 738,146$1,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,596.6 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 719,998$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,649.99 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 0c | 497,642$1,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,329.34 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…8a04backed Yes | 0c | 362,340$1,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,390.84 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -93.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…abd2backed Yes | 0c | 328,506$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.52 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4e…bfb2backed Yes | 0c | 292,094$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…2266backed Yes | 2c | 251,287$4,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,670.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9d…1209backed Yes | 0c | 249,992$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…25a8backed Yes | 0c | 212,500$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3116…fc46backed Yes | 1c | 183,186$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77d9…a4e5backed Yes | 1c | 176,656$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…14d8backed Yes | 0c | 168,448$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9e…fcafbacked Yes | 0c | 167,728$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7c…74c2backed Yes | 0c | 160,832$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…bf2abacked Yes | 1c | 149,832$2,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,072.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe63…49d0backed Yes | 0c | 145,847$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 0c | 139,999$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.99 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…682dbacked Yes | 0c | 128,470$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b78…1d46backed Yes | 0c | 128,376$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdae6…f68fbacked Yes | 0c | 128,359$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…0b00backed Yes | 0c | 128,359$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1004…6e6fbacked Yes | 0c | 128,359$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf0…3cc0backed Yes | 0c | 125,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b9…f8d8backed Yes | 0c | 111,037$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2c…32a3backed Yes | 0c | 110,583$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…8b10backed Yes | 0c | 107,948$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee1…398abacked Yes | 0c | 107,901$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10db…9845backed Yes | 1c | 103,267$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8018…edb3backed Yes | 1c | 103,267$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…d1adbacked Yes | 1c | 102,525$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7560…2c19backed Yes | 0c | 101,784$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67b4…b0babacked Yes | 0c | 101,784$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf260…6e36backed Yes | 1c | 101,764$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf246…dc87backed Yes | 0c | 101,056$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.01 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f3…2475backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdba6…0218backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd583…b9e3backed Yes | 0c | 92,300$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc2…65aebacked Yes | 1c | 88,532$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…0419backed Yes | 0c | 87,625$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…46b6backed Yes | 0c | 87,561$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69e9…824fbacked Yes | 0c | 86,764$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f2…1fcdbacked Yes | 1c | 82,455$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef3…cddbbacked Yes | 1c | 82,198$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde61…9068backed Yes | 1c | 80,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a2…ad55backed Yes | 1c | 76,136$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f5…1d41backed Yes | 2c | 75,627$1,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,624.95 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f8…83cbbacked Yes | 0c | 65,360$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…a0f5backed Yes | 1c | 64,987$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…c7b5backed Yes | 2c | 60,743$1,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.06 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf28d…b24bbacked Yes | 0c | 59,656$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.97 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f07…b421backed Yes | 1c | 56,970$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.19 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb6…9452backed Yes | 0c | 51,422$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.31 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes | 0c | 51,388$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.78 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -92.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd47…fa6bbacked Yes | 0c | 50,675$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa630…bf53backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbf…1eacbacked Yes | 0c | 49,930$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…1d72backed Yes | 2c | 49,513$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.58 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582b…ed89backed Yes | 0c | 46,385$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0017…6e7bbacked Yes | 0c | 43,629$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2249…45f1backed Yes | 2c | 43,073$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 43,000$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5e…bc73backed Yes | 6c | 42,312$2,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,518.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa1…3a2dbacked Yes | 0c | 42,044$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.09 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…4263backed Yes | 1c | 41,758$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2890…2657backed Yes | 0c | 41,692$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes | 2c | 40,630$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.7 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69aa…8c1cbacked Yes | 2c | 40,322$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe465…bb54backed Yes | 0c | 40,000$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 39,471$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.76 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…92e6backed Yes | 0c | 36,206$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5805…c2b8backed Yes | 1c | 35,000$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdf…032ebacked Yes | 1c | 33,068$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1688…b03fbacked Yes | 0c | 32,500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1da…8f6abacked Yes | 5c | 32,087$1,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,611 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…7ce1backed Yes | 1c | 30,400$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.67 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…dfb8backed Yes | 2c | 30,240$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.76 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…e576backed Yes | 0c | 28,577$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.73 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2320…f17ebacked Yes | 2c | 27,591$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbc…892bbacked Yes | 1c | 26,565$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.24 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb726…c79fbacked Yes | 2c | 25,971$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ad…67d4backed Yes | 0c | 25,270$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bee…2fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b5…c44abacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dc…c522backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf3…a33dbacked Yes | 0c | 24,795$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…56f1backed Yes | 0c | 24,042$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc5…071bbacked Yes | 1c | 21,833$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0397…000dbacked Yes | 2c | 21,257$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4418…2a10backed Yes | 0c | 20,775$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8656…5bfabacked Yes | 0c | 20,496$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…665abacked Yes | 0c | 20,237$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8686…2447backed Yes | 0c | 20,200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a24…a5ebbacked Yes | 1c | 20,022$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0079…17ccbacked Yes | 1c | 20,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…c0a4backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f1…a447backed Yes | 0c | 19,748$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d79…1b73backed Yes | 0c | 18,738$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeada…3dcebacked Yes | 0c | 18,644$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b40…73f9backed Yes | 1c | 18,381$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after November 2024 meeting?this page
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?Yes won
- Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after November 2024 meeting?No won
- Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after November 2024 meeting?No won
- No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting?No won
- Will the FED change rates to another level after Nov meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.