TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,995,207
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,585,542

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,995,207 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 929 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes7c267,694$18,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,939.88130%0 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd245…3995backed Yes5c257,556$12,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,172.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes12c156,283$18,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,741.135127.5%14 W · 37 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-39.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x708b…5165backed Yes3c156,229$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf1d…4a5dbacked Yes7c152,121$10,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,872.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d8f…34c6backed Yes6c144,977$8,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,633.081931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-46.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec1c…5452backed Yes1c137,745$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.2180%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0370…2fbcbacked Yes2c118,664$2,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,923.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x793e…f338backed Yes5c89,976$4,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,797.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc15d…c983backed Yes6c86,915$5,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,556.55333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-42%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41cb…d964backed Yes5c80,590$4,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,34020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0b6…7c80backed Yes5c75,377$3,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,706.37110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88ca…84acbacked Yes2c70,000$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,17030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked Yes1c60,651$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.7670%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes2c60,209$1,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,304.39120%0 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes1c58,003$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.56523.8%2 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc930…9ed4backed Yes2c56,772$1,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,201.5550%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb2…662abacked Yes2c49,013$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab1b…b851backed Yes2c48,536$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0fd…825cbacked Yes4c47,821$2,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,031.66616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-68.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes6c45,904$2,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,650.8420021.5%43 W · 157 L-10.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-39.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf012…a2cdbacked Yes7c45,540$3,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,112.87119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-86%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x203b…acd1backed Yes2c45,150$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.741811.1%2 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick6cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0939…8137backed Yes5c42,610$2,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,295.6540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-36.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb4b…3725backed Yes5c41,504$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-52.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf929…7633backed Yes5c38,974$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0c1…39abbacked Yes2c38,692$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes2c38,370$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.492123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60fd…1d52backed Yes12c38,104$4,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,607.31933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-52.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0af…1111backed Yes3c37,963$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c54…257dbacked Yes3c37,686$1,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,258.122910.3%3 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-78.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69ea…ba4abacked Yes9c35,795$3,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,149.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9d5…6f6abacked Yes12c34,807$4,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,097.63616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-63.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf917…bf7cbacked Yes2c34,030$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes8c31,356$2,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,638.491323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-38.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7bd8…4979backed Yes7c31,091$2,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,318.31425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-67.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75c7…5ef8backed Yes4c29,936$1,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,272.5140%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf78d…6fb5backed Yes9c28,720$2,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,573.95333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-58.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0107…7ec3backed Yes2c28,012$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.9728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-56.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4adf…4852backed Yes8c27,481$2,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,148250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes6c26,934$1,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,596.592725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-45%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05ab…8145backed Yes1c26,350$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.67128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-88.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd28e…2f42backed Yes2c26,181$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x809b…f7efbacked Yes2c26,022$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.1630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d5d…783dbacked Yes3c25,400$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6f3…bfc1backed Yes1c25,000$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.16333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x386d…9bb6backed Yes2c24,525$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.29018.9%17 W · 73 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd61d…5446backed Yes2c24,288$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.431127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…fd28backed Yes2c24,282$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Yes12c24,236$2,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,852.06933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f1…3548backed Yes4c23,867$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.18520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-74.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff62…19cbbacked Yes3c23,018$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb41b…36bebacked Yes1c22,419$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.1130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc81…a6a5backed Yes3c22,286$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.2130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0020…0d22backed Yes2c22,250$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-79%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5369…7302backed Yes1c21,207$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc833…c62dbacked Yes2c21,114$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2015…3fbfbacked Yes3c21,089$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.19128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-89.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1fe…c728backed Yes18c20,627$3,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,782.371118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-48.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3d6…64c2backed Yes4c20,597$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.3830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked Yes1c20,539$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.312030%6 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9933…2c80backed Yes5c20,506$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe03a…aedbbacked Yes15c20,185$3,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,076.7160%0 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes9c20,000$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7102010%2 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-70.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9851…b49fbacked Yes6c20,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac39…9ef9backed Yes2c19,602$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.0340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4526…152bbacked Yes10c19,337$2,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,009.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9934…4288backed Yes11c18,244$2,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,014.7760%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d4f…c690backed Yes13c17,802$2,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,36030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69aa…8c1cbacked Yes18c17,243$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,120.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde24…25a8backed Yes2c17,000$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268345.9%2 W · 32 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-71.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf596…8c31backed Yes10c16,559$1,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,642.321145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes12c16,555$2,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,032.721315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-77.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xea24…45cdbacked Yes3c16,508$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d33…35a9backed Yes3c15,725$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes4c15,725$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.0510420.2%21 W · 83 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes13c15,623$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-46.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc974…f0abbacked Yes2c15,465$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.760%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50f8…5897backed Yes2c15,290$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes7c15,255$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.03385.3%2 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick5cpaid-75.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes6c15,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9004151.2%21 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f07…b421backed Yes4c15,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6301136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa21e…d3a8backed Yes7c14,778$1,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,034.43560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4824…851ebacked Yes1c14,365$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1b3…76dcbacked Yes5c14,013$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.7540%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed Yes15c14,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,100922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-54.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47bc…abd2backed Yes6c13,779$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881.14922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-51.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes7c13,699$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.91315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-69.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9379…d159backed Yes2c13,622$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.7930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79bf…6f87backed Yes1c13,433$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6df…8abbbacked Yes4c13,409$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb40…7fa0backed Yes18c13,226$2,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,411742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f28…742cbacked Yes6c12,995$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcba3…6055backed Yes4c12,985$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.390%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9595…1b16backed Yes2c12,838$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.9550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1616…9df7backed Yes4c12,382$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa365…7155backed Yes1c12,089$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d4c…1906backed Yes6c12,020$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x402a…d1d1backed Yes28c11,985$3,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3501040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes6c11,958$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.92429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.