Fed Rates · resolved market
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a3a29b57597777e5d2941c419716b02a7b8c43b5c19c4ac746ae2d9c720cbe1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,995,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,585,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,995,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 929 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 7c | 267,694$18,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,939.88 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd245…3995backed Yes | 5c | 257,556$12,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,172.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 12c | 156,283$18,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,741.13 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x708b…5165backed Yes | 3c | 156,229$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1d…4a5dbacked Yes | 7c | 152,121$10,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,872.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8f…34c6backed Yes | 6c | 144,977$8,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,633.08 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec1c…5452backed Yes | 1c | 137,745$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.21 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…2fbcbacked Yes | 2c | 118,664$2,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,923.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x793e…f338backed Yes | 5c | 89,976$4,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,797.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc15d…c983backed Yes | 6c | 86,915$5,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,556.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…d964backed Yes | 5c | 80,590$4,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,340 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b6…7c80backed Yes | 5c | 75,377$3,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,706.37 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ca…84acbacked Yes | 2c | 70,000$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked Yes | 1c | 60,651$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.76 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes | 2c | 60,209$1,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,304.39 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 1c | 58,003$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.56 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed Yes | 2c | 56,772$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201.55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb2…662abacked Yes | 2c | 49,013$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab1b…b851backed Yes | 2c | 48,536$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…825cbacked Yes | 4c | 47,821$2,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,031.66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 45,904$2,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,650.84 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…a2cdbacked Yes | 7c | 45,540$3,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,112.87 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 2c | 45,150$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.74 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0939…8137backed Yes | 5c | 42,610$2,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,295.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4b…3725backed Yes | 5c | 41,504$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf929…7633backed Yes | 5c | 38,974$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c1…39abbacked Yes | 2c | 38,692$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes | 2c | 38,370$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.49 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed Yes | 12c | 38,104$4,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,607.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0af…1111backed Yes | 3c | 37,963$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…257dbacked Yes | 3c | 37,686$1,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258.12 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ea…ba4abacked Yes | 9c | 35,795$3,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,149.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d5…6f6abacked Yes | 12c | 34,807$4,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,097.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf917…bf7cbacked Yes | 2c | 34,030$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes | 8c | 31,356$2,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,638.49 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd8…4979backed Yes | 7c | 31,091$2,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,318.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…5ef8backed Yes | 4c | 29,936$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf78d…6fb5backed Yes | 9c | 28,720$2,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,573.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0107…7ec3backed Yes | 2c | 28,012$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4adf…4852backed Yes | 8c | 27,481$2,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,148 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 6c | 26,934$1,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,596.59 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 1c | 26,350$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.67 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…2f42backed Yes | 2c | 26,181$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x809b…f7efbacked Yes | 2c | 26,022$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5d…783dbacked Yes | 3c | 25,400$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f3…bfc1backed Yes | 1c | 25,000$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 2c | 24,525$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.2 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd61d…5446backed Yes | 2c | 24,288$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.43 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…fd28backed Yes | 2c | 24,282$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 12c | 24,236$2,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,852.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f1…3548backed Yes | 4c | 23,867$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff62…19cbbacked Yes | 3c | 23,018$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41b…36bebacked Yes | 1c | 22,419$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc81…a6a5backed Yes | 3c | 22,286$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…0d22backed Yes | 2c | 22,250$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -79%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5369…7302backed Yes | 1c | 21,207$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc833…c62dbacked Yes | 2c | 21,114$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2015…3fbfbacked Yes | 3c | 21,089$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.19 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fe…c728backed Yes | 18c | 20,627$3,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,782.37 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d6…64c2backed Yes | 4c | 20,597$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 1c | 20,539$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.31 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9933…2c80backed Yes | 5c | 20,506$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…aedbbacked Yes | 15c | 20,185$3,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,076.7 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes | 9c | 20,000$1,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,710 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9851…b49fbacked Yes | 6c | 20,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac39…9ef9backed Yes | 2c | 19,602$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…152bbacked Yes | 10c | 19,337$2,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,009.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…4288backed Yes | 11c | 18,244$2,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,014.77 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4f…c690backed Yes | 13c | 17,802$2,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,360 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69aa…8c1cbacked Yes | 18c | 17,243$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,120.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…25a8backed Yes | 2c | 17,000$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…8c31backed Yes | 10c | 16,559$1,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,642.32 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes | 12c | 16,555$2,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,032.72 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea24…45cdbacked Yes | 3c | 16,508$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…35a9backed Yes | 3c | 15,725$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 4c | 15,725$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.05 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes | 13c | 15,623$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…f0abbacked Yes | 2c | 15,465$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50f8…5897backed Yes | 2c | 15,290$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 7c | 15,255$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.03 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 6c | 15,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f07…b421backed Yes | 4c | 15,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa21e…d3a8backed Yes | 7c | 14,778$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4824…851ebacked Yes | 1c | 14,365$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…76dcbacked Yes | 5c | 14,013$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 15c | 14,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…abd2backed Yes | 6c | 13,779$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes | 7c | 13,699$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.9 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9379…d159backed Yes | 2c | 13,622$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79bf…6f87backed Yes | 1c | 13,433$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6df…8abbbacked Yes | 4c | 13,409$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb40…7fa0backed Yes | 18c | 13,226$2,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,411 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…742cbacked Yes | 6c | 12,995$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba3…6055backed Yes | 4c | 12,985$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.3 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9595…1b16backed Yes | 2c | 12,838$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1616…9df7backed Yes | 4c | 12,382$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa365…7155backed Yes | 1c | 12,089$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…1906backed Yes | 6c | 12,020$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…d1d1backed Yes | 28c | 11,985$3,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,350 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 6c | 11,958$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.9 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting?this page
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?Yes won
- Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after November 2024 meeting?No won
- Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after November 2024 meeting?No won
- Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after November 2024 meeting?No won
- Will the FED change rates to another level after Nov meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.