TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after November 2024 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$133,955,589
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,304,702

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,955,589 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 557 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xab59…ea9abacked Yes0c3,867,067$11,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,693.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x684b…0601backed Yes0c3,626,560$5,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,298.66119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-83.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e37…386bbacked Yes0c2,192,613$6,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,577.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5666…3ba1backed Yes0c1,006,232$3,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,012.4420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f84…ec61backed Yes0c933,900$2,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,801.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4004…fa48backed Yes0c873,657$2,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,620.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f18…9536backed Yes0c815,298$2,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,445.89425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-55.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c6…83d2backed Yes0c716,630$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,149.89333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes0c654,777$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.35244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-92.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe99e…294cbacked Yes0c639,909$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,919.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cf5…9a95backed Yes0c639,897$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,919.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2512…1d0dbacked Yes0c611,412$1,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,834.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3809…4391backed Yes0c608,004$1,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,824.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5386…2751backed Yes0c595,220$1,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,785.66425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb80e…be5bbacked Yes0c591,967$1,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,775.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x058a…b46fbacked Yes0c589,847$1,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,769.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x844f…d6a8backed Yes0c584,727$1,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,754.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7c1…191abacked Yes0c583,471$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,750.41366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e99…543dbacked Yes0c583,210$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,749.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaa8…74d3backed Yes0c582,577$1,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,747.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0c…2524backed Yes0c582,215$1,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,746.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe653…f65abacked Yes0c582,215$1,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,746.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc43…938ebacked Yes0c582,078$1,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,746.24475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+25.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dcf…4b58backed Yes0c582,078$1,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,746.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf957…4d42backed Yes0c581,850$1,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,745.55333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcca3…a61ebacked Yes0c580,316$1,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,740.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a00…cbd6backed Yes0c580,316$1,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,740.95333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-34.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80b7…f2aebacked Yes0c580,263$1,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,740.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda35…c1adbacked Yes0c579,901$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,739.7333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ca9…cdd3backed Yes0c578,235$1,735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,734.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d49…5ec5backed Yes0c559,401$1,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,678.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x634b…0816backed Yes0c553,242$1,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,659.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bfd…8952backed Yes0c542,147$1,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,626.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13a9…9d14backed Yes0c539,847$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,619.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf60e…7b31backed Yes0c533,208$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfb7…5f51backed Yes0c531,744$1,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,595.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f23…08babacked Yes0c531,548$1,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,594.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50e6…b3c5backed Yes0c527,310$1,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,581.93333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff3…88e9backed Yes0c521,548$1,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,564.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x860b…e6a3backed Yes0c511,548$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,534.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4114…6946backed Yes0c501,548$1,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,504.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x259a…053abacked Yes0c500,799$1,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,502.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeff6…51ffbacked Yes0c500,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d1…a1c2backed Yes0c491,541$1,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,474.62425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-57.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8add…3ce8backed Yes0c488,416$1,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,360.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b7b…d204backed Yes0c472,487$1,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,417.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd187…b9acbacked Yes0c471,114$1,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,413.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x683f…3f68backed Yes0c470,714$1,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,412.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbce8…9ea5backed Yes0c470,698$1,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,412.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb968…5f03backed Yes0c470,596$1,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,411.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91e6…14b1backed Yes0c470,152$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,410.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c13…1e40backed Yes0c470,078$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,410.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x334a…db04backed Yes0c469,885$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,409.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49c6…ad0cbacked Yes0c469,885$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,409.65333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-34.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd770…fb93backed Yes0c469,261$1,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,407.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x992c…3ae9backed Yes0c469,206$1,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,407.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e4c…94ecbacked Yes0c469,035$1,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,407.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40f9…f541backed Yes0c468,525$1,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,405.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f1a…8a65backed Yes0c463,207$1,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,389.62425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x950c…063ebacked Yes0c462,412$1,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,387.24333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9c2…40d5backed Yes0c458,600$1,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,375.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a27…a449backed Yes0c458,386$1,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,375.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ed0…d2b2backed Yes0c457,564$1,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,372.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb031…fdf3backed Yes0c457,512$1,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,372.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde79…bde6backed Yes0c456,044$1,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,368.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x821a…d2bbbacked Yes0c454,992$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,364.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf760…1921backed Yes0c454,425$1,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,363.27333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-34.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd8…1046backed Yes0c453,912$1,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,361.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74de…db8abacked Yes0c453,519$1,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,360.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7900…e9e6backed Yes0c453,207$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.62425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fa5…4dc8backed Yes0c451,800$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,355.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3134…ef9abacked Yes0c450,654$1,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,351.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda16…5bf9backed Yes0c450,438$1,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,351.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe608…749cbacked Yes0c450,009$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,350.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e6a…990abacked Yes0c450,009$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,350.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8755…863fbacked Yes0c449,977$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,349.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c33…8279backed Yes0c449,214$1,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,347.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x743f…839dbacked Yes0c449,214$1,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,347.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacac…a99ebacked Yes0c444,057$1,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,332.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bb0…5776backed Yes0c443,306$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,329.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ce…a6f9backed Yes0c443,256$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,329.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ce2…c582backed Yes0c442,204$1,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,326.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d5…dc52backed Yes0c441,852$1,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,325.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd003…2aa1backed Yes0c441,852$1,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,325.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa28e…ed17backed Yes0c441,852$1,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,325.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dbd…e01fbacked Yes0c441,828$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,325.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79b6…0fb7backed Yes0c440,782$1,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,322.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35f0…bc6bbacked Yes0c440,782$1,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,322.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0df…65a5backed Yes0c437,327$1,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,311.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x713f…0d19backed Yes0c436,511$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,309.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5685…1233backed Yes0c436,511$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,309.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb137…e24ebacked Yes0c436,511$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,309.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc228…26acbacked Yes0c436,511$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,309.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38ab…7ff9backed Yes0c435,722$1,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,307.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x982c…cf6abacked Yes0c435,722$1,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,307.17450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e43…0f60backed Yes0c435,722$1,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,307.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7016…9c7ebacked Yes0c434,566$1,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,303.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd605…ffcbbacked Yes0c434,566$1,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,303.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d3e…41ccbacked Yes0c432,988$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,298.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5611…cc26backed Yes0c432,988$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,298.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.