Bundesliga · resolved market
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0648f54813bcb9fb3a2dba2fd836b819ab08db4bb5b7026ecf50e49632543127
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 2,196$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.76 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 21c | 2,050$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.21 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…88a4backed Over | 69c | 1,706$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Over | 66c | 1,515$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.15 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…385abacked Under | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff8…d7fdbacked Under | 37c | 540.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 31c | 525.56$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.61 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Under | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 38c | 434.2$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.35 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Under | 12c | 402.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 67c | 315.48$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.11 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 19c | 314.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.45 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…8e51backed Over | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 9c | 277.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b43…0714backed Over | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 8c | 256.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…f183backed Over | 70c | 250$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 8c | 220.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked Under | 26c | 203.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Over | 75c | 202.67$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…01c6backed Under | 42c | 183.33$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Under | 29c | 181$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7468…3d24backed Under | 10c | 151.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa151…03b0backed Over | 66c | 144.33$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a94…b06bbacked Over | 79c | 122.78$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 70c | 113.19$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 110 | 65.5%72 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbb…48f2backed Over | 75c | 108.15$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +169.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Under | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed6…b0b3backed Over | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf88…3ed6backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 70c | 82.58$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 35c | 76.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Over | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed Under | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Under | 19c | 65.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 35c | 63.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…5800backed Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +25%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 19c | 52.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…32bcbacked Over | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18c2…529abacked Over | 72c | 44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Over | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7482…a8f7backed Over | 59c | 30.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3e…4d47backed Over | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ee…1183backed Over | 69c | 24.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa0…441abacked Over | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…cb5ebacked Over | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec2…e905backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5this page
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 0.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5Under won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5Under won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5Under won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)Hamburger SV won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)Hamburger SV won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.