Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cca7d9d800dfd55160cec91f346b6fd35afb92a471c00add5aa95a2d1b7a7aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hamburger SVof Bayer 04 Leverkusen, Hamburger SV
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Hamburger SV | 74c | 1,431$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.02 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 36c | 1,238$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.27 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 23c | 1,014$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.17 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Hamburger SV | 64c | 900$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.6 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x568e…6980backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 38c | 720.13$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Hamburger SV | 68c | 400.43$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.09 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 32c | 400.43$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.14 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…1619backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 37c | 350.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Hamburger SV | 64c | 320$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Hamburger SV | 66c | 164.98$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.54 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Hamburger SV | 62c | 155$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…7e5ebacked Hamburger SV | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Hamburger SV | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Hamburger SV | 62c | 101.3$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 34c | 91.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0338backed Hamburger SV | 66c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 34c | 68.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95db…dc65backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 35c | 55.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Hamburger SV | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d44…9f3bbacked Hamburger SV | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Hamburger SV | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 34c | 31.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…4930backed Hamburger SV | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)this page
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 0.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5Under won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5Under won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5Under won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)Hamburger SV won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.