Bundesliga · resolved market
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86cd251117a169ece0e50e20522efa3781c242a64b7df1da8ceb878c2398de5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 44c | 1,513$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.38 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 39c | 662.7$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.54 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 61c | 480.18$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.56 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 39c | 478.98$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.8 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…6ea4backed Yes | 46c | 436.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.51 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 55c | 426.76$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.31 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…f949backed Yes | 60c | 413.64$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Yes | 52c | 388$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.24 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Yes | 61c | 333.1$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.33 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 39c | 286.83$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed No | 11c | 276$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 61c | 225$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.35 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 40c | 223.76$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.22 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 60c | 215$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 59c | 203.98$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.63 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…24cebacked Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed No | 48c | 194$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.12 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked No | 48c | 194$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8d…c822backed Yes | 57c | 194$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 60c | 193.51$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.34 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Yes | 60c | 165.83$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.33 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.6wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x98f2…65dcbacked Yes | 63c | 158$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.38 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c04…1844backed Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1a…ebcebacked No | 39c | 119.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 41c | 119.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.94 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed No | 50c | 118.12$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.24 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 39c | 113$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 50c | 103.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 60c | 101.67$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Yes | 59c | 99.97$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…9ecdbacked Yes | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked No | 44c | 69.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 35c | 66.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ab…e7b6backed Yes | 62c | 57.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 61c | 54.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc4…a77fbacked Yes | 60c | 53.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed No | 39c | 52.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…cc73backed Yes | 57c | 52.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e9…9886backed Yes | 39c | 50.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc080…f9a0backed Yes | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Yes | 61c | 47.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Yes | 47c | 45.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfedc…0241backed Yes | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Yes | 58c | 39.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 59c | 39.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 40c | 37.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…ffcabacked No | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa17e…cfcdbacked No | 61c | 33.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Yes | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…b524backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4c…ad2fbacked Yes | 63c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4633…48f1backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…9904backed No | 66c | 29.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69bd…af6ebacked No | 41c | 27.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 44c | 25.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed No | 43c | 25.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a17…3f86backed Yes | 74c | 20.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 94 | 76.6%72 W · 22 L | +16.8wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed No | 55c | 19.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 0.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5Under won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5Under won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5Under won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)Hamburger SV won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)Hamburger SV won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.