Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcff17185687ac0f1e53048649c1bc4fed6107f8ea5b7e58cb1c05efe238c057
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hamburger SVof Bayer 04 Leverkusen, Hamburger SV
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a91…c6b1backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 55c | 2,715$1,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,493.47 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Hamburger SV | 45c | 2,593$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,433.24 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Hamburger SV | 45c | 1,270$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.06 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe11…18cfbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 55c | 982.31$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.27 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Hamburger SV | 67c | 736.83$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.33 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…02b5backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 57c | 614.04$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…2ebcbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 55c | 592$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.6 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…0c7bbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 55c | 592$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.6 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hamburger SV | 59c | 536.19$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.02 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…de1bbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 56c | 518.8$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Hamburger SV | 45c | 468.53$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.86 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97b3…4a85backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 57c | 400$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Hamburger SV | 44c | 320$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.2 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ee…b517backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…34c0backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 56c | 250$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 55c | 249.99$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.49 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d29…8264backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 58c | 240.02$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Hamburger SV | 44c | 224.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.97 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Hamburger SV | 45c | 219.36$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.65 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Hamburger SV | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 13c | 199.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 57c | 192.63$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b4…d723backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 55c | 190$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Hamburger SV | 53c | 188.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.03 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 58c | 171.93$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.6wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7f82…c446backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 55c | 150$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Hamburger SV | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Hamburger SV | 44c | 110$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Hamburger SV | 45c | 107.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.13 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…c3c8backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Hamburger SV | 44c | 99.04$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.78 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Hamburger SV | 44c | 94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Hamburger SV | 42c | 64.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Hamburger SV | 43c | 59.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Hamburger SV | 42c | 54.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95db…dc65backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 56c | 52.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0167…8525backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 57c | 44.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e93…79f3backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 55c | 38.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +133.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Hamburger SV | 53c | 35.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4c…ad2fbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 55c | 35.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Hamburger SV | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Hamburger SV | 69c | 29.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a1…c13bbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68a2…7460backed Hamburger SV | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Hamburger SV | 45c | 24.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 56c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…6dd4backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)this page
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 0.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5Under won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5Under won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5Under won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)Hamburger SV won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.