Bundesliga · resolved market
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa580bd7375e809ffd4c3b71fe7962caf11f5991056525937e2730424aa3c0fa8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb619…5068backed Under | 64c | 4,000$2,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.99 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b75…433bbacked Over | 36c | 2,778$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 75c | 2,661$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.16 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 35c | 1,930$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.8 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 21c | 1,558$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.47 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 15c | 1,290$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.77 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Under | 73c | 425.59$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.91 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 67c | 400$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 36c | 360$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Over | 31c | 320.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 5c | 299$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa96f…0cd0backed Over | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 24c | 261.37$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.26 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 73c | 190.19$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…5800backed Over | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +25%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc82…3918backed Under | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 63c | 89$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 64c | 84.62$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…1ff8backed Under | 73c | 56.16$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404f…f2a1backed Under | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 63c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5this page
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 0.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5Under won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5Under won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)Hamburger SV won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)Hamburger SV won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.