Bundesliga · resolved market
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd99d697b274cec2ff92fae496206f931736bf20fd07e8c3ffb950ad22ec68eaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 18c | 3,662$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.8 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 16c | 3,388$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.81 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 3,030$2,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.18 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Under | 44c | 3,000$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b75…433bbacked Over | 56c | 2,679$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 33c | 2,000$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70d8…a237backed Over | 55c | 1,552$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.68 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…d408backed Over | 43c | 1,433$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.04 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Under | 44c | 999.95$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.97 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe462…e436backed Over | 33c | 909.09$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Under | 52c | 709.54$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.58 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 15c | 586.7$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.87 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 56c | 521.77$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.19 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Over | 56c | 499.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.99 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 44c | 374.42$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.68 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 30c | 299.3$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.81 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 45c | 294.01$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.71 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96f…0cd0backed Over | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Under | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 44c | 209$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.04 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Over | 56c | 193$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.08 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…9904backed Over | 13c | 178.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Under | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Under | 80c | 151$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Over | 18c | 138.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc33e…b4b6backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26f2…1761backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Over | 56c | 88.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.6wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc311…c154backed Under | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…0df5backed Over | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6c…0319backed Over | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1020…580ebacked Under | 58c | 66.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Under | 45c | 61.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Under | 45c | 60.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Over | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 50c | 59.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 48c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 64c | 45.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Over | 57c | 45.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…4930backed Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…8263backed Under | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 48c | 41.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49fa…6eebbacked Under | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Under | 45c | 38.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -6.2wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2a91…c6b1backed Over | 55c | 37.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 45c | 35.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 48c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…1ff8backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3323…f667backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b1…d4d4backed Under | 58c | 24.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 51c | 22.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -5.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82fc…ed4ebacked Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5this page
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 0.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5Under won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5Under won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)Hamburger SV won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)Hamburger SV won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.