TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xfaa0…441a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
232
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Other European Leagues, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Other European Leagues at 59 out of 100; worst Premier League at 39.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2026, EDT3860.5%23 W · 15 L+5.0wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+34.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
FC Utrecht vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$16.8
FC Utrecht vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+100%+$14.77
Will FC Famalicão win on 2026-05-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$13.45
FC Famalicão vs. FC Alverca: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Beşiktaş JK vs. Trabzonspor: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.84
Gaziantep FK vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.8
Gaziantep FK vs. Beşiktaş JK: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.6
Gaziantep FK vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
SC Braga vs. FC Famalicão: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$14.94
FC Porto vs. CD Tondela: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$26.68
Sporting CP vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$20.99
Trabzonspor vs. Rams Başakşehir FK: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+125%+$36.42
Trabzonspor vs. Rams Başakşehir FK: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+100%+$19.4
Samsunspor vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$28.6
Samsunspor vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+92.5%+$25.73
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.06
Antalyaspor vs. Konyaspor: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$23.6
Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-1.5)backed Fenerbahçe SK · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Çaykur Rizespor: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$27
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Çaykur Rizespor: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$14.4
FC Porto vs. FC Famalicão: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$20
Will Trabzonspor vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.66
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.12
Trabzonspor vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.58
Gil Vicente FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+75.4%+$9.46
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT3847.4%18 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$11.28
VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.15
VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.77
Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.2
Hannover 96 vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.6
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$24.5
SV Werder Bremen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+100%+$19.4
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.5
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SC Paderborn 07: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.3
VfB Stuttgart vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.69
VfB Stuttgart vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$21.94
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$15.53
SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$19.2
DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.4
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$19.24
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.99
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Hannover 96 vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+100%+$30
Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-03-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$16.5
SC Paderborn 07 vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+96.1%+$14.7
SC Paderborn 07 vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$10.2
SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+88.7%+$14.1
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$14.26
DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hannover 96: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$10.62
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT3444.1%15 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+523.3%+$451.4
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Portugal vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Norway to score first vs. Brazil?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$39.1
Brazil vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.68
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+203%+$36.55
Canada vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$52.04
Lionel Messi: 2+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Australia vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Australia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.42
Australia vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Switzerland vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Spain vs. Austria: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+100%+$70
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: United States O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$49
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$24.02
England vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$48
England vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.5
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$21.28
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+100%+$20
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$84
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$102
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+100%+$65
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.2
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$19.6
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT3330.3%10 W · 23 L-5.9wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-38.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
Premier League — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$38.72
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.39
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$9.6
Manchester City FC leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.2
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.5
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)backed Arsenal FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.6
Burnley FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.3
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)backed Manchester City FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.02
Crystal Palace FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.52
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.96
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$16.5
Everton FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$9.6
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.4
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.28
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.74
Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$27.1
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+92.3%+$15.36
Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$17.28
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$15.6
Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+100%+$20
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$16.8
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Aston Villa FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$51
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$26
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT2045%9 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sevilla FC vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$21.25
RC Deportivo La Coruña vs. CD Leganés: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$19.6
FC Barcelona vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.21
FC Barcelona vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$53
FC Barcelona vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.69
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Getafe CF: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.42
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Getafe CF: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.17
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+150%+$24
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.24
Real Betis Balompié vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
RCD Mallorca vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$27
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$40.99
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+104.1%+$25.5
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$48
Real Betis Balompié vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+100%+$70
Real Madrid CF vs. Levante UD: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$21.5
Real Madrid CF vs. Levante UD: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+72.4%+$16.8
Villarreal CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+150%+$36
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-01-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$23
Real Oviedo vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+108.3%+$57.18
All 20 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Serie A — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cagliari Calcio vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$10
US Lecce vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+100%+$15
US Lecce vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.53
Juventus FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.53
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.6
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$58
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.8
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$28.5
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+138.1%+$17
Pisa SC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$11.7
AC Milan vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$30.58
ACF Fiorentina vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+85.2%+$29.44
Como 1907 vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+163.2%+$30.99
All 13 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT1250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
O/U 2.5 Roundsbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$18.4
UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Mandel Nallo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.42
O/U 1.5 Roundsbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$16.76
UFC Fight Night: Tanner Boser vs. Gokhan Saricam (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Gokhan Saricam · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$39.37
UFC 326: Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Brunno Ferreira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST-100%-$15.2
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$15.08
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+100%+$12.15
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$45
Will the fight be won by submission?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$48
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+177.8%+$86.4
Will the fight be won by submission?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$51.22
Oliveira vs. Gamrotbacked Oliveira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT+100%+$100
All 12 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$30.5
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.14
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+300%+$81
Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$34
Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$98
Sporting CP vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+78.6%+$88
Sporting CP vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+78.6%+$65.12
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$62
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$109.99
All 12 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$14.4
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$20.25
AS Monaco FC vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Lille OSC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.01
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+78.6%+$30.8
AJ Auxerre vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Olympique Lyonnais vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+69.5%+$32.8
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-01-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$10.8
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. Le Havre AC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+222.6%+$27.6
Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+170.3%+$63
All 11 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+78.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+48.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+59.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-19.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.75
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+61.3%+$46.79
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+158.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$365Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+158.2%+$577.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.