UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0626946fcee1b703f58763891946550f95a3f48b4a0fb76d080565f63a47e7f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 43c | 10,919$4,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,642.18 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c9…396dbacked Under | 58c | 7,566$4,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,179.36 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Under | 56c | 3,000$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…311cbacked Under | 56c | 699.45$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd507…a6ddbacked Over | 44c | 499.99$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2258…0eecbacked Over | 46c | 474.24$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.7 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed Over | 42c | 455.21$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.81 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -5.4wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Over | 44c | 443.98$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.13 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 41c | 402$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.82 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 54c | 380.62$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.5 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e9…895dbacked Under | 58c | 307.18$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Over | 44c | 219.64$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.64 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7008…d2f5backed Under | 57c | 207.59$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.26 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Under | 59c | 179.82$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.72 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2430…4527backed Under | 56c | 156$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Under | 55c | 140$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Under | 59c | 135.41$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.52 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 59c | 127.81$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6808…899bbacked Under | 59c | 120.62$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ec…12eebacked Over | 44c | 109.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…a520backed Under | 56c | 102.89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…76edbacked Under | 58c | 94.12$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2909…5326backed Under | 60c | 86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed Over | 42c | 86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…13edbacked Under | 57c | 85.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 58c | 82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 44c | 76.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Over | 44c | 63.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a29…836dbacked Over | 44c | 54.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3081…d24abacked Over | 47c | 51.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed Under | 55c | 44.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Under | 58c | 42.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa0…441abacked Under | 57c | 38.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 57c | 34.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…a0d7backed Under | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a479backed Over | 45c | 32.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba74…cd0abacked Under | 62c | 28.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6733…acb9backed Over | 45c | 27.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 56c | 25.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb0…e4fcbacked Under | 55c | 24.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Under | 56c | 21.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Dennis Buzukja vs. Marcio Barbosa (Featherweight, Prelims)Marcio Barbosa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.